Final observations from a week at the NFL scouting combine:
1. Rodgers puts NFL on hold
Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is moving toward his decision — Packers, Broncos, another team? — and has put the NFL on a certain kind of hold and something I haven’t seen while covering the league.
“The Broncos aren’t getting Rodgers,” was a line I heard multiple times last week. But letap face it, everybody is speculating. Nobody knows what Rodgers is thinking.
The Broncos likely have Plans A (Rodgers as the only addition), B (maybe one early signing, followed by affordable additions) and C (hold onto the space for in-house deals).
The Packers have two plans: Rodgers and not Rodgers.
Green Bay faces a Tuesday deadline to franchise tag receiver Davante Adams, but it is more than $26 million over the salary cap. Ideally, it receives clarity on Rodgers so he can get off their books or sign an extension to lower his current hit of $46.7 million to make room for Adams’ tag of at least $20 million.
The Broncos acquiring Rodgers would shock everybody I talked to this week (I would not be shocked).
Fascinating theatre.
2. Trubisky legend grows
Mitchell Trubisky was benched during the 2020 season in Chicago. He was allowed to walk in free agency to Buffalo. And he played 33 total snaps as Josh Allen’s back-up with the Bills last year (eight pass attempts).
But the quarterback marketap demand has greatly exceeded the supply so Trubisky is expected to sign with a team this month to be their no-doubt starter.
The Broncos’ Teddy Bridgewater is the only free-agent quarterback who played more than 37% of his team’s snaps in 2021. Does a team believe Andy Dalton has something left? Does New Orleans re-sign Jameis Winston coming off an ACL injury? Does Jacoby Brissett get another shot? Does Tyrod Taylor fill a place-holder role with yet another team?
Trubisky would be fine on a one-year deal for a team that drafts a quarterback … we guess. He is 29-21 as a starter in the regular season (64 touchdowns and 38 interceptions).
3. Moving down, up from No. 9
The Broncos are in the ninth overall draft slot for the second consecutive year. Last April, they stayed put and selected cornerback Pat Surtain II. There was no chatter at the combine about which teams would try to move into the top 10 or move from Nos. 6-9 into the top five to get a quarterback.
The No. 9 pick last changed hands in 2016 when Chicago traded Nos. 11 and 106 to Tampa Bay to move up two spots for outside linebacker Leonard Floyd.
An average of 2.2 quarterbacks have been drafted in the top 10 since 2012, led by four in ’18. The only year without a top-10 passer was ’13.
Among the teams in front of the Broncos, two merit monitoring if general manager George Paton wants to stay at 9 and take a quarterback: The Giants (Nos. 5 and 7) and Carolina (No. 6).
4. Intriguing safety class
If new Broncos defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero views Caden Sterns as a sub-package player (third safety in dime personnel, for example), this could be a good draft to add a plug-and-play safety.
Paton said Saturday morning the Broncos talked to the representation of impending free agent Kareem Jackson, but he had a team-high 14 missed tackles last season, more than double the next-closest player (Surtain, Justin Simmons and Shelby Harris with six apiece).
Simmons carries cap hits of $18.85 million, $18.15 million and $18.25 million over the next three years, so it makes sense to go with a rookie contract player as the other safety. Sterns checks that box.
There is little chance Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton falls to No. 9, but in the second round, the group includes Penn State’s Jaquan Brisker, Georgia’s Lewis Cine, Illinois’ Kerby Joseph and Oregon’s Jalen Pitre.
