When Week 1 rolls around in September, a whopping eight of the AFC’s 16 teams will have new starting quarterbacks compared to the 2020 season.
The Broncos (Russell Wilson) and Cleveland (Deshaun Watson) made the biggest moves this month, trading a combined three players and 10 draft picks to Seattle and Houston, respectively.
Where do Wilson and Watson rank in the AFC’s quarterback power rankings? Here is my 1-16 look:
1. Kansas City (Patrick Mahomes). Still at the top of the chart. Mahomes has reached the AFC title game in each of his four years as a starter and won the 2019 Super Bowl.
2. Buffalo (Josh Allen). Allen has 73 touchdowns and 25 interceptions in the past two seasons and the Bills will roll through the AFC East this year to help them win home-field advantage.
3. Cincinnati (Joe Burrow). As only a second-year starter, Burrow led the NFL in completion percentage (70.4%) and helped the Bengals to the Super Bowl.
4. Broncos (Wilson). The Broncos are back in the AFC playoff conversation.
5. L.A. Chargers (Justin Herbert). He is 6-6 against the division in his two years and has totals of 69 touchdowns and 25 interceptions.
6. Cleveland (Watson). He went 21-10 with 52 touchdowns and 21 interceptions in 2018-19 and led the NFL with 4,823 passing yards in ’20. A dynamic playmaker who, if eligible in Week 1, evens up the Browns with Cincinnati in the AFC North.
7. Las Vegas (Derek Carr). Thirteen games under .500 for his career, but Carr has eclipsed 4,000 yards passing in four consecutive years and now has receiver Davante Adams.
8. Baltimore (Lamar Jackson). A former NFL MVP (2019) is seventh in his conference? Yep. He has 42 touchdowns and 22 interceptions the last two years.
9. Tennessee (Ryan Tannehill). If I had to split the quarterbacks into two tiers, Tannehill would be the start of Level B. He needs to bounce back from the miserable one-touchdown/three-interception playoff loss to underdog Cincinnati.
10. Jacksonville (Trevor Lawrence). Forget about his rookie year; he was set up to fail by coach Urban Meyer and bad personnel decisions. Lawrence should be better with coach Doug Pederson serving as his play-caller.
11. New England (Mac Jones). The Patriots managed Jones to a wild-card appearance, but now he has to learn a new offense after coordinator Josh McDaniels and a bunch of assistants departed.
12. N.Y. Jets (Zach Wilson). He survived a 1-5 start and had five touchdowns and two interceptions in his final six games (2-4 record).
13. Miami (Tua Tagovailoa). The Dolphins remain committed to Tua, who is 13-8 as a starter in two seasons, but he had 16 touchdowns/10 interceptions last year in 13 games. Teddy Bridgewater, stand by.
14. Pittsburgh (Mitch Trubisky). He should beat out Mason Rudolph for the starting spot replacing Ben Roethlisberger.
15. Houston (Davis Mills). The Texans’ focus should be on the 2023 quarterback class.
16. Indianapolis (To Be Determined). If the Colts acquire Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo, they move up to ninth on this list. Like the Broncos, they are looking at a sixth different Week 1 starter in as many years.
“Arms race.” Not that every move by Kansas City, Las Vegas and the Chargers requires a Broncos counter-move, but just about. “The AFC West, itap an arms race, really, what everybody is doing,” general manager George Paton said Friday. “We embrace the challenge.”
Johnson’s journey. Add the Broncos to the list of teams for veteran quarterback Josh Johnson, who agreed to terms Friday to compete with Brett Rypien for the backup spot. Since entering the NFL 2012, Johnson’s stops (in order): Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Cincinnati, the New York Jets, Indianapolis, Buffalo, Baltimore, the New York Giants, Jacksonville, Houston, the Raiders, Washington, Detroit, San Francisco, the Jets and Baltimore.
Vegas fleeces Packers. Why was there disagreement Thursday night about Las Vegas giving first- and second-round picks to Green Bay for Adams? The Raiders won the trade. Adams doesn’t turn 30 until Dec. 24, has missed only 12 games in eight years and has 111, 83, 115 and 123 catches in the last four years. Adams will join forces with Carr, his quarterback at Fresno State, and his presence should create even more room on the field for receiver Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller. A terrific move by new Raiders general manager Dave Ziegler and coach Josh McDaniels.
Miller cashes in. Credit former Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller — he got it both ways last week: The money and joining a championship-caliber team. Miller signed a six-year, $120 million contract ($51.5 million guaranteed) and will attempt to be the first player to win Super Bowl titles with three different teams. My lean at the start of free agency was Miller would command $10 million -$12 million range for a contending team and $15 million-$17 million from a rebuilding team. The first four years of his Buffalo contract average $17.5 million.
Jaguars spend freely. Dating back to Week 1 of 2020, Jacksonville is 4-29. They hired Pederson, who realized reinforcements were required to support Lawrence. Enter tight end Evan Engram, right guard Brandon Scherff and receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones on offense and tackle Foley Fatukasi, linebacker Foye Oluokun and cornerback Darius Williams on defense. Did the Jaguars overpay? Yes, but that is what bad teams have to do.
Fant moves on. Lost in the hubbub about the Wilson trade was the Broncos moved on from another first-round draft pick in tight end Noah Fant. From 2012-19, the Broncos had seven first-round selections and only left tackle Garett Bolles has received a second contract. Fant caught 170 passes for 1,905 yards in three years, but scored only 10 touchdowns. It would have been interesting to see his uptick in production if he had played alongside Wilson.
