What to watch in the Colorado Avalanche’s first-round NHL Western Conference playoff series against the Nashville Predators:
Who has the edge?
Forwards
The Avs have seven 20-goal scorers, the Preds five. But Nashville has the only two 40-goal guys in Matt Duchene (43) and Filip Forsberg (42). Colorado is deeper but the Preds can be equally as dangerous. With left wing and team captain Gabe Landeskog back, the Avs will have three strong scoring lines plus an all-energy/forecheck fourth line. The Avs are so healthy and deep that a guy like Darren Helm, Andrew Cogliano or Nicolas Aube-Kubel won’t make the Game 1 lineup. But scoring boils down to the top-six and Colorado is loaded with Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky, Valeri Nichushkin and Landeskog. Nashville’s strength is center Mikael Granlund and wingers Forsberg and Duchene. Edge: Avalanche
Defensemen
This is the deepest and probably most talented Avalanche blueline since 2001. But the Preds have Roman Josi on their back end. Josi and Colorado’s Cale Makar will probably finish 1-2 or 2-1 in the Norris Trophy voting, with the winner the only question. Beyond Josi and Makar, the Avs’ depth stands out. When Ryan Murray is soon cleared from an arm injury, they will have nine available guys. Only six make a lineup, so perhaps the depth is more of an advantage down the road in the series or the next series. But Colorado’s Devon Toews, Sam Girard, Josh Manson, Bo Byram and Erik Johnson look better on paper than the five guys behind Josi. Still, the Preds’ blueline isn’t a weakness. Edge: Avalanche
Goaltenders
If Nashville’s clear-cut No. 1 guy, Juusi Saros, misses more than Games 1 and 2 because of the leg injury he sustained last week, this comparison goes to the Avalanche all the way. But Saros is a 2022 NHL All-Star, an excellent undersized goalie who has a career-high 38 wins this season. If Saros is out all series, it will be veteran David Rittich (.886 save percentage) or rookie Connor Ingram (.879) in the Preds’ net. Neither has made an NHL start in the playoffs. Ingram, however, is a two-time AHL All-Star who leads that league in minutes played (3,195:15), saves (1,541) and shutouts (five) this season. The Avs have Game 1 starter Darcy Kuemper and backup Pavel Francouz ready to go. It’s a good tandem for many reasons, including that they catch from different hands. Kuemper struggled in Thursday’s 5-4 shootout loss to Nashville to get his bad game against the Preds out of the way.Edge: Avalanche
Special teams
Nashville and Colorado rank sixth and seventh on the power play at 24.4% and 24.0%, respectively. Both have superstar players on the first unit. Josi runs things for the Preds up top, with the right-shot Forsberg on the left wing. It’s similar to Makar at the point and MacKinnon as the right-shot, one-time threat for the Avs. Rantanen is highly dangerous as the left-shot guy at the right circle — a better player than Duchene in the same spot. On the penalty kill, Colorado and Nashville also have near-equal stats. The Avs rank 15th at 79.7% and the Preds are 18th at 79.2%. As in every series, special teams will be a big factor in the outcome, but going into this one, the comparison is too close to call. Edge: Even
Coaching
Neither head coach made it to the NHL in their playing careers, and Nashville’s John Hynes never played after college at Boston University. But he and the Avs’ Jared Bednar have had extensive AHL/NHL coaching careers and know what they’re doing. Bednar has had more success in the playoffs, leading Colorado to the second round of the playoffs in each of the last three years. This is Hynes’ fourth trip to the NHL playoffs, and third with Nashville. He has yet to coach beyond the first round. Edge: Avalanche
— Mike Chambers
Five things to watch
1. Duchene rolling. Expect boos inside Ball Arena every time No. 95 touches the puck for Nashville. Forward Matt Duchene, formerly with the Avalanche (2009-17), scored a career-high 43 goals in his third season with the Predators. He enters the postseason riding an eight-game points streak with five goals and six assists during that stretch. Colorado dealt Duchene in a 2017 trade that yielded current active players Sam Girard and Bo Byram. Now, those defensemen are tasked with keeping Duchene off the score sheet.
2. Makar vs. Josi. Two of the NHL’s brightest young star defensemen and top candidates for the Norris Trophy will be on display. Colorado’s Cale Makar (28 goals/58 assists) and Nashville’s Roman Josi (23 goals/73 assists) play a similar game as lighting quick magicians creating offense with sneaky strength on the back end. There’s definitely mutual respect among the defensemen. “Personally, I watch a lot of (Josi) throughout the year,” Makar said. “He’s a guy that shows up in so many different areas of the ice where you wouldn’t expect him to be. … He’s definitely the drive for their team.”
3. Kadri’s cool. Itap the Avalanche narrative that just won’t go away: Will Nazem Kadri be suspended during the playoffs? During his NHL career, itap happened six different times with Kadri missing 16 playoff games and 11 regular-season games. His hit on Blues defenseman Justin Faulk in Game 2 of the first-round series a year ago yielded an eight-game ban from the league as a repeat offender. Kadri was excellent for Colorado this season with a career-high 87 points. But that production will hardly be remembered if he’s forced to miss playoff games with yet another suspension.
4. Kuemper’s kryptonite? Avalanche starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper was phenomenal this season with 37 wins and a .921 save percentage (top-five marks in the NHL). But that success didn’t translate in two starts against the Predators. He went 0-0-2 and gave up nine combined goals with a .870 save percentage in those matchups. There is no question the Avalanche has its full trust in Kuemper. Don’t expect backup Pavel Francouz to enter the postseason unless absolutely necessary. But Kuemper must prove he’s up to the challenge if Colorado wants to avoid a stunning first-round upset.
5. Nashville shot selection. Nashville’s offensive strategy: Put traffic in front of the net and keep throwing pucks on goal — from just about any location on the ice. “They do it all the time,” Avs coach Jared Bednar said. “They shoot the puck in volume. Shoot it, and if it bounces off the boards, they’re going to turn and fire it blind. They do that a lot.” Five different Predators (Duchene, Filip Forsberg, Tanner Jeannot, Ryan Johansen and Josi) recorded 20-plus goals scored during the regular season.
— Kyle Fredrickson
Staff predictions
Mike Chambers, Avalanche beat reporter: With or without No. 2 center Nazem Kadri (non-COVID illness), I just see a relentless end-to-end assault on whoever is in Nashville’s net from the otherwise full-strength Avs. The Predators have a similar identity and defenseman Roman Josi and winger Filip Forsberg are two of the world’s best players. It could be a high-scoring series. But Colorado is so much deeper at every position and when you play a track meet style of game, that difference will surface. Avalanche in 5.
Kyle Fredrickson, sports reporter: We haven’t seen a 100-percent healthy Avalanche team all season with major contributors sidelined for large stretches of the year. That’s over now. I expect a period or two in Game 1 where Colorado struggles to get on the same page with several new faces back in the fold. But then it will be time to pull out your brooms for a clean sweep. The Predators don’t have the personnel to make this series interesting. Avalanche in 4.
Mark Kiszla, columnist: All I’m really hoping for in this series is to sit down at the house with our old buddy Matt Duchene, crack open a cold one and listen to Dutchy jam with his besties in the country music biz. As a teenager, I lived in Nashville when Minnie Pearl was the mayor and the Ryman Auditorium was falling down, so I love to poke fun at the new, all-grown-up Nashvegas hipster vibe. But I seriously believe the Preds could bring a little free-wheeling fun to this series. Avalanche in 6.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Yeah, yeah, we know: Nashville is the new Vegas, the bullies who bang their way inside the Avs’ heads and never leave. But if Juuse Saros can’t go for the Preds, none of that matters. With a healthy Gabe Landeskog and a wiser Nazem Kadri, Colorado’s road to redemption — and payback — starts in Music City. But it won’t end there. Avalanche in 6.
Lori Punko, deputy sports editor: With Predators all-star goaltender Juuse Saros out for the first two games of the series, the Avalanche, in front of a packed house at Ball Arena, should head to Nashville with a 2-0 series lead. The return of Gabe Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen add to Colorado’s dominance. Nashville might be able to steal one at home if Saros returns healthy. Avalanche in 5.
