For teams like the Rockies and Diamondbacks to be contenders, the stars must align and the windows of opportunity must open just right.
The D-backs’ window is wide open right now. How long it stays that way remains to be seen, but I’m certain the Rockies are well aware of what’s going on in the desert. Whether or not the Rockies can duplicate the D-backs’ success is debatable.
Arizona’s about-face is remarkable.
This is a team that lost 110 games just two years ago. The D-backs hadn’t reached the playoffs since 2017 when they beat the Rockies in a wild-card game. Itap been a decade since the D-backs won the National League West. And 22 years since they won their only World Series.
But after upsetting Milwaukee in the wild-card round, Arizona is now in the NLDS vs. the mighty Dodgers. I don’t think it’s going to happen, but I would not be shocked to see the D-backs pull off another upset.
The Rockies, we know, are a long way from the postseason, but considering that they lost 103 games this season, comparisons with the D-backs are apropos.
According to Spotrac, Arizona’s $119.3 million total payroll ranks 21st in the majors. The Rockies’ $171 million payroll ranks 14th, just above the major league average of $165.8 million. The D-backs drew 1.7 million fans to Chase Field. The Rockies drew 2.6 million to Coors Field.
But it’s Arizona, not Colorado, that has found a formula for success.
How did the Diamondbacks turn things around so quickly? The front office made bold moves, the team became very athletic, young stars exploded on the scene and the D-backs found two quality starters to anchor the rotation.
Coming off a 74-win season in 2022, Arizona’s front office remained aggressive. This past spring, the Diamondbacks traded one of their best young players in center fielder Daulton Varsho. In return, Arizona received young catcher Gabriel Moreno and the hard-hitting outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Just three weeks into the season, the D-backs cut veteran starter Madison Bumgarner, ate the remaining $34 million on his contract, and replaced him with unproven rookie starters.
Taking advantage of baseball’s new rules, speedy Arizona swiped 166 bases, second only to Cincinnati. The D-backs’ 87% success rate was the best in the majors. The slow-footed Rockies stole 76 bases, raking 28th. Their success rate was a middling 75%.
Arizona’s Corbin Carroll, who’s a lock to win NL rookie-of-the-year honors, is a dynamic defender in the outfield and has a chance to become an elite hitter with some power. Carroll, just 23, is the first player ever to combine 50-plus steals with 25-plus home runs and 10-plus triples in the same season. He’s an electrifying player.
In another bold move in March, the D-backs awarded Carroll with an eight-year, $111 million contract, despite the fact he still had less than one full year of MLB service time.
The Diamondbacks’ rotation is not deep, but Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly provide a solid one-touch punch at the top. In a game dominated by power pitchers, Gallen and Kelly are two starters who succeed with movement, location and crafty pitch selection. In some ways, the duo is reminiscent of Colorado’s Kyle Freeland and German Marquez in 2018.
The Rockies didn’t say so publicly — remember, rebuild is a dirty word at 20th and Blake — but they knew they weren’t going to win this season. I think they know that their chances of being a playoff team in 2024 are slim to none.
But what about 2025, two seasons removed from the first 100-loss season in franchise history? Will the window be open?
With shortstop Ezequiel Tovar and outfielders Nolan Jones and Brenton Doyle hitting their prime, and players like outfielder Zac Veen, infielder Adael Amador, and catcher Drew Romo expected to make an impact, the lineup could be dynamic.
But unless the Rockies find and develop quality starting pitching over the next two years, the window to win will be cracked open only slightly.
It’s going to take some bold, inventive moves to open it wide. Are the Rockies up to the task?
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