Colts (6-7) at Broncos (8-5)
When: Sunday, 2:25 p.m. MT
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS
Broncos-Colts series: Denver is 14-12 in 26 regular-season games dating back to 1974; the Broncos lost 12-9 in the last meeting, on Oct. 6, 2022, at home, and have dropped two in a row to Indianapolis.
In the spotlight: Numbers aside, Broncos not taking Anthony Richardson lightly
Anthony Richardson’s start to his career has been anything but stable.
He has had moments where he displayed the talent that made him the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft. And he’s had moments where ball security, inaccuracy and questionable decision-making have hindered a Colts offense that remains below league average.
A shoulder injury limited Richardson to just four games as a rookie. Then in October, the 22-year-old was benched for veteran Joe Flacco after throwing four touchdowns and seven interceptions in six games.
The Colts have turned to Richardson once again with the hope of sneaking into the postseason. He has helped Indianapolis win two of its last three games, most recently a 25-24 victory against the Patriots in Week 13 when he helped orchestrate a crucial 19-play, 80-yard scoring drive in the fourth quarter.
Richardson hasn’t been perfect but if the Broncos want to achieve their own postseason dreams, they know not to underestimate him on Sunday.
“There’s a reason why he was the fourth overall pick,” Broncos defensive lineman Zach Allen said. “When you watch (him), you see the arm talent and the physical gifts that make him such a good runner.”
In nine games, Richardson has totaled 70 carries for 383 yards and four touchdowns. He has 191 yards on designed runs — third-most among quarterbacks, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. He has a success rate (percentage of carries resulting in positive EPA) of 47.6% on 42 designed run attempts.
Part of the challenge of slowing down Richardson in the run game is his size. Standing at 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds, he’s as big as some of the Broncos’ pass rushers. Having running back Jonathan Taylor (186 carries, 805 yards, four touchdowns) in the backfield also adds to the challenge.
“We faced some running quarterbacks this year, not as big as him,” Allen said.
Said head coach Sean Payton: “It presents a completely different challenge than weeks prior.”
Richardson’s passing numbers are not eye-popping. He has 1,511 yards, seven touchdowns and nine interceptions. He has yet to throw for over 300 yards in a game, and he has the lowest passer rating (64.3) and completion percentage (47.4%) in the league with a minimum of 200 pass attempts, according to Next Gen Stats.
Still, Broncos safety P.J. Locke understands Richardson can let the ball fly. Richardson has averaged 12.9 air yards per attempt and 8.7 air yards per completion.
Richardson has completed 36 for 103 passes (34.9%) for 954 yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions on throws for at least 10-plus air yards. Similar to Denver’s win over the Browns when it recorded three interceptions to overcome a shaky defensive effort, the Broncos’ ability to win the turnover battle could be one of the deciding factors in their home matchup against Indianapolis.
“He has a cannon for an arm,” Locke said. “Man, he has extreme talent. … I don’t care about his numbers. Nobody’s going to take him lightly. He’s that talented.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
Broncos running back Jaleel McLaughlin has found a groove in recent weeks. He has totaled 21 carries for 128 yards in the last two games. But good luck predicting who will be Denver’s top back from one week to the next. The Colts have struggled to constrain the run this season. They have allowed 4.6 yards per carry — tied for 21st in the league. Edge: Broncos
When Broncos pass
Since Week 5, Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has averaged 11.3 yards per attempt (11th-most) and has a 109.7 passer rating on pass attempts for 10-plus air yards, according to Next Gen Stats. The connection with wide receiver Courtland Sutton has developed into a real threat, with Sutton catching 42 passes for 569 yards over the last six games. The Colts are 16th in pressure rate (33.1%) and the 15th in sacks (32). Edge: Broncos
When Colts run
Zach Allen has been an all-around defender for the Broncos. Not only has he been an efficient pass rusher, he’s effective against the run. Allen has a team-high 17 run stuffs (tackles resulting in no gain or loss), according to Next Gen Stats. Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor has averaged 62.7 yards in the last three games. Edge: Broncos
When Colts pass
Broncos linebacker Cody Barton has 17 pressures — sixth-most among inside linebackers across the league. Edge rushers Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto have combined for 19 sacks and should have plenty of chances to add to that total Sunday. The Colts have given up the sixth-highest pressure rate (38%). Edge: Broncos
Special teams
Broncos punter Riley Dixon has downed 27 punts inside the 20-yard line — tied for fourth in the league. He has averaged 42.8 net yards per punt attempt. Denver has allowed 6.3 yards per punt return — second-best. The Colts have totaled 183 yards on 18 punt returns. Edge: Broncos
Coaching
Remember when the Broncos started the Sean Payton era at 1-5? The team has managed to turn things around since then, sporting a 15-9 record. On Sunday, Payton has a chance to secure Denver’s first winning season since 2016. Colts coach Shane Steichen is in the midst of his second season in Indianapolis and has his team in the playoff hunt despite the group’s fair share of struggles offensively and defensively. Edge: Broncos
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 320.2 (21st) | 311.5 (23rd) |
| Rush offense | 111.2 (20th) | 118.8 (14th) |
| Pass offense | 209.0 (21st) | 192.7 (26th) |
| Points per game | 23.5 (13th) | 20.5 (22nd) |
| Total defense | 315.7 (8th) | 379.4 (29th) |
| Run defense | 94.7 (6th) | 147.0 (31st) |
| Pass defense | 221.0 (20th) | 232.4 (26th) |
| Points allowed | 18.0 (2nd) | 22.9 (18th) |
(Click here to view chart in mobile.)
By the numbers
367: Rushing yards for Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin
267: Receiving yards for Broncos WR Marvin Mims Jr.
8: Interceptions thrown by Broncos QB Bo Nix.
82: Tackles recorded by Broncos LB Cody Barton.
12: Quarterback hits for Broncos DL John Franklin-Myers.
Bet on it
Broncos first-half point total over 12.5: The Colts have allowed 14.3 points in the first half over the last four games. They gave up 16 points in the first two quarters during their previous matchup against the Patriots. Fresh off a bye week, expect the Broncos to hit the ground running. Denver will play with a sense of urgency and put points on the board early.
Bo Nix over 241.5 passing yards: This is a safe bet. The Colts have been one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Meanwhile, Nix has averaged 291.3 passing yards in his last three games. He has thrown for at least 250 yards in four of Denver’s last six contests.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 27, Colts 20
Sean Payton’s team has won the games it’s supposed to this year. The best team by record they’ve beaten is 7-6 Tampa Bay. The worst team they’ve lost to by record? A three-team tie at 8-5. The Colts are 6-7. The Broncos are favored by 4. An eight-year playoff drought is on the line. At long last, it’s time for the breakthrough.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 27, Colts 17
The Broncos understand whatap at stake on Sunday, and their performance will reflect that. Denver will take advantage of a struggling Colts defense and don’t be surprised if it relies on the run game to do so. Expect Anthony Richardson to try to create some explosive plays in the passing game. However, he will fall victim to the turnover bug, which will play a big part in the outcome.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 25, Colts 20
The blinker has been on for months. Can the Broncos finally show they have turned the corner by winning their biggest game since Super Bowl 50? In a word, yes. Their performance will match the stakes. This matchup plays to the Broncos’ strengths. They will feature a balanced offense with Bo Nix and create takeaways from a dynamic quarterback in Anthony Richardson, who doesn’t always know where the ball is going when he releases it.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 24, Colts 17
Anthony Richardson’s lifetime NFL road stats: Five games, 5 passing TDs, 5 rushing TDs, and a 63.5 passer rating. Bo Nix’s lifetime NFL home stats: Six games, 12 passing TDs, 2 rushing TDs and a 99.0 passer rating. Mile High Magic ultimately pulls Denver over the line, and thank goodness. The Colts (6-7) get the festive gifts of the Titans, Giants and Jaguars over the holiday season. The Broncos (8-5) get the Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs. Win and you’re in, baby.
