John Leyba, The Denver Post
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) scrambles away from Denver Broncos defensive end Robert Ayers (91) during the first quarter of Super Bowl XLVIII at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey Sunday, Feb. 2, 2014. (Photo by John Leyba/The Denver Post) 
Getting your player ready...
After a rollercoaster of a rookie year that ended with a thrilling descent back into the station, quarterback Bo Nix is set to further solidify himself as the Broncos’ face of the franchise in 2025.
But quarterback development in the NFL is hardly linear, especially for draftees who are tossed into the fire. Here’s a look at both leaps and pitfalls for high-profile quarterbacks from Year 1 to Year 2 in the NFL since the heralded 2012 quarterback class (click here to view chart in mobile):
| Player, team | Season | Record | Comp. % | Yds | Y/A | TD-INT | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young, Carolina | 2023 | 2-14 | 59.8 | 2,877 | 5.5 | 11-10 | 73.7 |
| 2024 | 4-8 | 60.9 | 2,403 | 6.3 | 15-9 | 82.2 | |
| Comment: After a rough rookie year, the 2023 No. 1 pick was benched a few games into 2024, but showed notable growth after winning his job back later in the season. | |||||||
| C.J. Stroud, Houston | 2023 | 9-6 | 63.9 | 4,108 | 8.2 | 23-5 | 100.8 |
| 2024 | 10-7 | 63.2 | 3,727 | 7.0 | 20-12 | 87.0 | |
| Comment: On the surface, Stroud dipped. Beyond the numbers, his receiving corps endured a rash of injuries, and he was actually better on intermediate throws over the middle. | |||||||
| Mac Jones, New England | 2021 | 10-7 | 67.6 | 3,801 | 7.3 | 22-13 | 92.5 |
| 2022 | 6-8 | 65.2 | 2,997 | 6.8 | 14-11 | 84.8 | |
| Comment: Jones had a statistically similar rookie year to Nix, but collapsed under pressure his sophomore year and is now a backup in San Francisco. | |||||||
| Trevor Lawrence, J’ville | 2021 | 3-14 | 59.6 | 3,641 | 6.0 | 12-17 | 71.9 |
| 2022 | 9-8 | 66.3 | 4,113 | 7.0 | 25-8 | 95.2 | |
| Comment: Lawrence took his lumps in his rookie year, but this is the ideal Year 1 to Year 2 trajectory for a No. 1 overall pick. | |||||||
| Justin Herbert, L.A. Chargers | 2020 | 6-9 | 66.6 | 4,336 | 7.3 | 31-10 | 98.3 |
| 2021 | 9-8 | 65.9 | 5,014 | 7.5 | 38-15 | 97.7 | |
| Comment: Herbert had one of the best rookie years in NFL history and has only continued to sling it since. | |||||||
| Kyler Murray, Arizona | 2019 | 5-10-1 | 64.4 | 3,722 | 6.9 | 20-12 | 87.4 |
| 2020 | 8-8 | 67.2 | 3,971 | 7.1 | 26-12 | 94.3 | |
| Comment: The elusive Murray got significantly better at handling pressure in his second season, brought down just 27 times after an NFL-leading 48 sacks as a rookie. | |||||||
| Dak Prescott, Dallas | 2016 | 13-3 | 67.8 | 3,667 | 8.0 | 23-4 | 104.9 |
| 2017 | 9-7 | 62.9 | 3,324 | 6.8 | 22-13 | 86.6 | |
| Comment: Prescott’s accuracy on intermediate throws took a nosedive in Year 2, a worrisome trend that — despite an excellent NFL career — has occasionally come back to bite him. | |||||||
| Carson Wentz, Philadelphia | 2016 | 7-9 | 62.4 | 3,782 | 6.2 | 16-14 | 79.3 |
| 2017 | 11-2 | 60.2 | 3,296 | 7.5 | 33-7 | 101.9 | |
| Comment: Wentz was terrible at handling pressure as a rookie and took a massive leap in Year 2, but had a wholly unsustainable touchdown-to-interception ratio. | |||||||
| Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay | 2015 | 6-10 | 58.3 | 4,042 | 7.6 | 22-15 | 84.2 |
| 2016 | 9-7 | 60.8 | 4,090 | 7.2 | 28-18 | 86.1 | |
| Comment: Pretty much the same big-armed risk-taker he was as a rookie, and has been pretty much the same dude ever since. | |||||||
| Derek Carr, Oakland | 2014 | 3-13 | 58.1 | 3,270 | 5.5 | 21-12 | 76.6 |
| 2015 | 7-9 | 61.1 | 3,987 | 7.0 | 32-13 | 91.1 | |
| Comment: Another ideal point for Year 1 to Year 2 development, Carr’s deep ball was significantly better in his second year with the Raiders. | |||||||
| Geno Smith, N.Y. Jets | 2013 | 8-8 | 55.8 | 3,046 | 6.9 | 12-21 | 66.5 |
| 2014 | 3-10 | 59.7 | 2,525 | 6.9 | 13-13 | 77.5 | |
| Comment: Smith was terrible on short accuracy as a rookie and slightly improved his second year, but this is a far, far cry from his current Raiders iteration a decade later. | |||||||
| Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 2012 | 9-6 | 65.6 | 3,200 | 8.1 | 20-5 | 102.4 |
| 2013 | 3-10 | 60.1 | 3,203 | 7.0 | 16-12 | 82.2 | |
| Comment: Griffin after an offseason procedure on his knee, setting in motion a precipitous decline following his rookie of the year debut. | |||||||
| Russell Wilson, Seattle | 2012 | 11-5 | 64.1 | 3,118 | 7.9 | 26-10 | 100.0 |
| 2013 | 13-3 | 63.1 | 3,357 | 8.2 | 26-9 | 101.2 | |
| Comment: Long before his disastrous tenure in Denver, Wilson burst onto the scene as a rookie with a tremendous deep ball and only improved there en route to a Super Bowl ring in Year 2. | |||||||
| Andrew Luck, Indianapolis | 2012 | 11-5 | 54.1 | 4,374 | 7.0 | 23-18 | 76.5 |
| 2013 | 11-5 | 60.2 | 3,822 | 6.7 | 23-9 | 87.0 | |
| Comment: One of the most-hyped QB prospects of the last 25 years, second-year Luck dialed back on some of the risk-reward that muddied his rookie year. | |||||||
| Ryan Tannehill, Miami | 2012 | 7-9 | 58.3 | 3,294 | 6.8 | 12-13 | 76.1 |
| 2013 | 8-8 | 60.4 | 3,913 | 6.7 | 24-17 | 81.7 | |
| Comment: Tannehill struggled notably as an intermediate thrower as a rookie, and still struggled in his second year, but later righted the ship across a solid NFL career. | |||||||
