Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
The real reason for this is to say that the most egregious thing the Broncos could do this season is to lose to the (gag) Patriots at home for the AFC championship. What must Sean Payton do to make up for the absence of Bo Nix?
— Fred Waiss, Prairie du Chien, Wisconsin
Hey Fred, thanks as always for writing in from the homeland and thanks for getting us going on AFC Championship Game week. Pretty wild, huh?
Obviously, itap been an impactful few days in Denver with the Broncos advancing past Buffalo in the divisional round. That game alone had so many storylines and interesting things happening, then such a dramatic finish. Then it all took a backseat to the news that Bo Nix fractured a bone in his right ankle and is out for the season.
As for this coming weekend, I really don’t think the recipe is too complicated if you’re trying to find the path to victory for the Broncos. Itap just a situation that’s easier said than done.
How can Sean Payton’s Broncos respond vs. Patriots after losing Bo Nix to fractured ankle? | Podcast
The game itself is about the basics: Turnover margin, red zone, third downs and the ground game. Win enough of those and the Broncos can be in good shape regardless of the quarterback spot. The Broncos were plus-4 in turnovers against the Bills, but went 1 of 3 in the red zone before the game-winning field goal, didn’t play well defensively on third downs, had the ball almost 12 minutes less and were outrushed 183 to 70. Still, you get a bunch of turnovers and a play like the one Ja’Quan McMillian made in overtime and you’re going to have a chance.
Denver’s defense is going to have to play really well. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has had a terrific season. His one big bugaboo has been ball security. Maye has put the ball on the ground 14 times, including four alone last week against Houston.
The Broncos have forced seven takeaways in their past two games and outside linebacker Nik Bonitto alone has three forced fumbles against QBs in that span.
Hey Parker, what can we expect from Jarrett Stidham on Sunday?
-- Kyle, Wheat Ridge
That is a great question and one I really don’t know the answer to.
We know Stidham’s smart and savvy and that, after three years in Payton’s system, he knows it like the back of his hand. We know Payton and the Broncos have actual, real confidence in him. We know he has confidence in himself and sees himself as a starting-caliber quarterback in the NFL.
What a story it would be if he came out slinging it, played well and led Denver to the Super Bowl.
But, would you really be surprised -- or, frankly, could you really blame Stidham — if there were a feeling-out or nerves period early in the game? Maybe there won’t be. But itap going to be unlike any game Stidham’s played in over his pro career, thatap for sure.
Stidham doesn’t have to go full 2017 Nick Foles and throw for 350 yards and three TDs as a backup in a conference championship game. But he must avoid committing a raft of turnovers and has to find a way to keep Denver’s offense moving with at least some consistency.
If he does those things, the Broncos will have a chance. Again, easier said than done.
Life-long Broncos fan here. I think VJ’s play-calling on Saturday was terrible. On almost every snap our corners were eight to 10 yards off the receivers. The Bills either scored or turned the ball over every time they had the ball (if I'm not mistaken). This allowed Josh Allen to have quick options, negating the blitz/pass rush. Why doesn’t he play more press coverage to allow more time for the pass rushers to get home? In the few instances where he did, they had success. In a game without Bo Nix, they’ll need to prevent our opponent from scoring much and an aggressive approach defensively may be warranted, would you agree? Thanks for the great content week after week.
-- Shep, Pleasanton, California (via Boulder)
I agree that Denver will have to be aggressive and play terrific defensively to win against New England on Sunday. I disagree on it being a terrible outing for Joseph against Buffalo. They obviously gave up some things against the run, but overall, they took the ball away five times -- a Payton demand from late in the season, remember — and made a bunch of plays.
Now, it was not the group’s most complete outing of the year. James Cook was the first guy to rush for 100-plus yards against Denver since Indy’s Jonathan Taylor in Week 2. The Broncos got worked on third and fourth down (11 of 16 total for the Bills) and Josh Allen put quite a scare into them down the stretch. But he’s also the reigning MVP and might be the best player on the planet at the moment.
The Broncos press and play man as much as anybody in football. That equation changes a bit when facing a team thatap much more dangerous at tight end and running back than at receiver, which is a unique setup the Bills currently feature. In some ways, itap a much more typical matchup on Sunday, but also a really tough one. New England’s got a pair of good receivers in Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry (60 catches for 768 yards and 7 TDs) at tight end and a pair of quality backs in TreVeyon Henderson and Rahmondre Stevenson. Oh, and an MVP candidate at quarterback in Drake Maye.
Hi Parker, first of all, good year writing the mailbag. It's what I look forward to reading the most. Too bad about Bo Nix, huh? He is the heart and soul of this team. I hate to stay on the dark side, but what do you think about Vance Joseph being fired if he doesn't get a head coaching gig? It's been the same story year after year of his defense tailing off toward the end of the season. Payton seems to be frustrated with him on the sidelines from time to time, and the Bills certainly had their way with them except for the turnovers. Can you see that happening?
-- Joe, Aurora
Hey thanks, Joe, appreciate the kind note. Thanks! The age-old question when it comes to coaches is this: Who are you going to get thatap better? Joseph’s past two years in Denver are among the best in football, he’s universally respected and just about every team that is in the market for a head coach wants to talk with him.
Sure, there are areas where the Broncos can try to improve and late-season performance is on the list, but man, if Joseph doesn’t get a head coaching job, Denver should be jumping for joy that he’d be back for another season.
Granted, it was one preseason game. The play calling result by QB coach Davis Webb was remarkable and in sharp contrast to Sean Payton in general and most notable against the KC and LV junior varsities.
Question: Is it possible that Payton's ego would conclude that the offense would be more productive and consistent with QB coach play-calling?
-- Pepe, Lamar
Hey Pepe, thanks for writing in and the interesting question. The short version is itap just really difficult to imagine Payton actually giving up play-calling any time soon. Nothing’s impossible, but itap so intrinsically part of his job and also is, seemingly, among his favorite parts of it.
As for Webb, yeah, his one go at it in the preseason was awfully pretty. It was also the preseason. There are no stakes. Itap not similar to anything in the regular season. Payton wasn’t happy with how the Broncos performed -- or how he did -- the last two weeks of the season, but they were trying to secure a division title and then the No. 1 seed. Thatap altogether a different situation than anything in August, regardless of how depleted Kansas City and the Los Angeles Chargers were.
I thought in Week 18 it looked as though Webb was sticking even closer to Payton than usual and was maybe a little more in shadowing mode, but also heard through and after the game that there was nothing specifically different about the Broncos’ operations that day.
Is there a world in which Payton wins a second career Super Bowl in a couple of weeks, becomes the first coach ever to do so and hands off the playsheet to Webb? I doubt that for several reasons at this point, but can’t say itap impossible.
The reality here, though, is that itap just going to be difficult for Denver to keep Webb around much longer, even though he raves about his job and loves working with Bo Nix and company. A head coaching gig isn’t impossible, and if he doesn’t get one of those, then somebody will probably be interested in having him call plays.
Remember, the only time you can block a coach from taking an interview is if itap a lateral move. The Broncos could promote Webb again to offensive coordinator -- of course, they already have an OC in Joe Lombardi who has deep ties with Payton -- but even then, a play-calling job is considered a promotion from there.
Hi Parker, it seems as though every coach in the US, both college and pro, cover their mouths when they're talking, Payton doesn't. Is there any way that the opposing team can read his lips and know what is coming, or is covering your mouth when talking way overrated?
-- Randy B., Fort Collins
Hey Randy, thanks for writing in and for the good question. I think itap overrated. Are there some situations where maybe something could be captured? Probably. But in time for somebody to decode it, relay it to the defense and then adjust before a snap? Seems unlikely.
Also, Payton’s playbook is notoriously wordy, so the idea that you’re going to correctly nail 15, 18, 20-plus words as he’s saying them would be pretty impressive. Not sure even Connor Stallions could pull that off.
Another thought that popped in my head: Payton has a reputation for sometimes being a little chaotic on the headset. During training camp in the summer of 2024, Denver offensive coaches and Nix joked about moving from hearing OC Joe Lombardi’s calm demeanor in the headset during training camp practices -- Lombardi would radio them to Nix while Payton ran practice -- to hearing Payton on the headset on game days for the first time.
Would certainly be fun to hear what that sounds like.
Payton’s been asked multiple times since arriving in Denver about instances in which his playsheet has been shown clearly on television broadcasts. One in 2023 was clear enough that one of his former players, Tommy Stevens, later told The Post he saw it and thought, “that looks familiar.”
All to say if Payton thought anything along the lines of covering his mouth or his playsheet would actually provide a benefit, he’d do it.
Hello, Parker. Don't know when the next mailbag will be, but hopefully the Broncos are still playing when it happens. Regarding the roster, the most obvious area of need, I believe, is at the skill positions. I know Payton caught lightning in a bottle in New Orleans with some low-round picks, but so far, he has found exactly no stars by refusing to spend early-round draft capital on a WR. I know he believes he can turn guys into stars, but now that the roster has such depth in other areas, will he finally address this issue? Tell me, Parker, will Payton finally chase elite talent at WR
-- David, Charlotte
Hey David, thanks for the note and good question. You got your wish. The next mailbag is here and the Broncos are indeed still playing.
Receiver will definitely be an interesting position to watch this offseason. Denver has a bunch that they like and don’t have one thatap truly across-the-board elite. Courtland Sutton, of course, is undeniably elite on third down and in the red zone and he’s a foundational player for the Broncos.
In terms of drafting one early, we know Denver will pick no earlier than No. 29 in the first round, so you’re still talking about having to hit on somebody who goes into the draft without sure-fire, superstar billing. Every team would love to find a Puka Nacua in the fifth round or and Amon-Ra St. Brown in the fourth. There are good receivers up and down the draft board, but you’re more likely to find a really good one early.
This regular season, 19 receivers hit 1,000 yards. Thatap not an easy translation to “elite,” but itap an easy cutoff. Of them, nine were selected in the first round. Five more, including Sutton, were second-rounders. Then Nico Collins and Michael Wilson in the third round, St. Brown in the fourth and Nacua and Stefon Diggs in the fifth.
Haven’t really started to dig much into offseason stuff yet, but receiver will be among several interesting spots for Denver through the winter and spring. I also wouldn’t expect Payton and general manager George Paton to veer too much from whatap worked, which is continually bolstering the line of scrimmage, the edge and the secondary.
