Troy Renck: Loss Angeles provides a path for the Nuggets to win big. When injuries struck the Lakers, leaving them without Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) for weeks, Denver received a E470 ExpressToll pass to the No. 3 seed. The Nuggets began Monday in a flat-footed tie for the spot, and will need to clear the Lakers to move up since they own the tiebreaker. The Lakers went from the hottest team to the saddest. And now the conversation shifts for the Nuggets. Who is the best playoff matchup: the Timberwolves or Rockets?
Sean Keeler: Houston, we have no problems! Give me Durant and Sengun over Ant-Man, Randle and Rudy. A No. 3 seed feels inevitable with the way the basketball gods are smiting the Lake Show at the same time the Nuggets are stacking up the health and good hoops karma — and you love to see it. But it’s not just that the Nuggets went 3-1 against the Rockets during the regular season. Or that they’ve averaged 118 points in those four meetings. Or that Denver just clobbered Houston by 36 points a month ago. Or that Bruce Brown and KD have a beef good enough for pay-per-view. It’s that Durant hasn’t won a big playoff series in what feels like forever. Since 2020, his teams have faced seven postseason tests. They’ve won only two of them while getting swept three other times. It’s that Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon and Jonas Valanciunas should, on paper, be able to do what they like in the paint against a Rockets team that hasn’t had the same muscle down low since Steven Adams was lost for the season.
Renck: Because of the Lakers, bring on the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Stop living in the past. These are not the Timberwolves of 2024. The Nuggets are 3-1 against Minnesota this season. Nikola Jokic owns Rudy Gobert, and Denver has enough offense to outlast volcanic outbursts from Anthony Edwards. Is Houston an easier mark? Yes. They are a defensive team that relies too heavily on Kevin Durant in big spots, though his isos with Bruce Brown would be must-see TV. But widen the lens. With both opponents beatable, the path forward matters as much as the first-round matchup.
Keeler: In a perfect world, you’d avoid the Thunder for as long as possible. Although, guess what? In this world, the conference semifinals are where title dreams tend to take a shovel to the back of the head. Fun fact: Five of the last seven defending NBA champions have been eliminated in the second round, including the last four title-winners in a row. That’s where dynasties get made — or, more recently, get messed up. It’s where the Knicks took out Boston a year ago. It’s where the Wolves took out the Nuggets in ’24. It’s where the Lakers took out Golden State in ’23. It’s where the Celtics took out the Bucks in ’22 and where the C’s took out the Raptors in ’20. No reigning champ has made it past the second round since the Warriors in 2019. So if there’s any time to tackle SGA and the worst refereeing on Planet Earth, it’s probably in the conference semis.
Renck: Capture the third seed, and it puts the Nuggets on a collision course with the Spurs. This is what you should want. The Nuggets are in the same weight class as San Antonio, a few pounds below Oklahoma City. The NBA is a ladder league, requiring future champs to execute playoff steps. Even with the incomparable Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs are newbies. Plus, Jokic sent a message on Saturday to the young star that he is not going anywhere. Jokic is the present. Wemby is the future. Those who argue that it is better to challenge the Thunder earlier because the Nuggets could be healthier have a point. But it is better to face OKC with an NBA Finals berth on the line, where the pressure is greater. Take the No. 3 seed. It gives the Nuggets the best chance to finish No. 1.
Keeler: The Nuggets are still pretty fragile from a health perspective, which is tricky when every path in the West is booby-trapped. But if I can pick and choose between the lesser of multiple evils, give me a first-round matchup that’s going to be less physically taxing on Jokic and AG . The one that’s going to be easier to recover from before I get slapped and pushed and poked around by OKC for 10-12 days. That ain’t Minnesota, my friend.
