Troy Renck: The Nuggets’ offseason feels like a documentary on , and we all know it is not going to end well (spoiler alert, they don’t get LeBron James). With Nikola Jokic on the roster, championships remain the expectation. Yet, the Nuggets have done little to nothing to improve the team around him. It can be argued that the inactivity is aggressive because they are going for it with a veteran team. It can also be argued that this premise made a lot more sense in 2023 and 2024. The biggest move comes down to this: Is Peyton Watson worth $25 million or should the Nuggets sign and trade him?
Sean Keeler: The Nuggets’ summer so far could be described my friend. Here’s the thing: There’s the open market, what everybody else thinks your players are worth; and there’s the Nuggets’ internal “reward our dudes” market. Steph Noh’s salary projection while the site has that number between $14-18 million. The latter also notes, though, that it thinks P-Swat will actually get something along the lines of a four-year deal at $80 million to $100 million, or $20-25 million per season. Which would be in line with what his teammates are getting and should justifiably exceed that. If Cam Johnson (12.2 points per game, 43% 3-point shooting rate) is worth $23 million and Christian Braun (12.0 ppg, 30.1% on treys) is worth $21.55 million, then it’s an easy argument from Watson’s camp that their guy (14.6 ppg, 41.1% on treys) should make more, based on last season’s production.
Renck: Watson is everything the Nuggets need: a bouncy, young player — just 23 — with defensive prowess and offensive upside. Once Watson showed he could create his own shot, he was worth it. The sample size is chillingly small, but when Nikola Jokic missed 16 games with a knee injury, Watson averaged 22.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.5 blocks. He emerged as a big reason Denver posted a 10-6 record in Jokic’s absence. It is uncomfortable to pay Watson $25 million per season — heck, it will likely take more — after Christian Braun became injured and ineffective on the same salary last season. But it is not fair to hold Braun’s performance against Watson. Braun might end up as a bench player because of his suspect shooting. Watson has a much higher ceiling after draining 41.1% of his 3-pointers a year ago.
Keeler: The Kroenkes are playing the long game here, which is holding everything else up, and assuming everyone else is as scared of the second apron as they are. That makes sense and cents: , only seven NBA franchises as of Monday were projected to be $20 million or more below the second apron line ($221.69 million) while also not being hard-capped by the first apron ($209.02 million). The Lu Dort trade to Atlanta only makes Watson’s market for potential suitors smaller.
Renck: Agent Rich Paul is using every angle to create interest in his client. But with Lu Dort going to the Hawks, it appears the Clippers and Bucks are the only teams left who can realistically give Watson a hefty offer sheet for between $25 and $30 million. The Nuggets appear ready to match or call Paul’s bluff. I want Watson back, and would be willing to overspend. It also means trading Cam Johnson because there is no reason the Nuggets should become the only team to go into the second apron this season. Don’t like going big for Watson? Here’s what I like even less: executing a sign-and-trade for Watson for another vagabond player — the Nuggets have cornered the market on those this offseason — for draft picks to use when Jokic is in his mid-30s. I would rather risk whiffing on Watson than give Jokic a reason for leaving.
Keeler: Aren’t we looking at this backward, though? In terms of potential and upside, of course you’d be loco to try and move Watson now. But the reality is this: Of the new P-Swat, Cam and CB contracts, the Nuggets are only realistically keeping two of them so as to avoid that dreaded second salary-cap apron. If you want to make a “win-now” statement to Jokic, you keep everybody, eat the money and keep on trucking. But that’s not the KSE Way. So the premise becomes this: Which of those three could I leverage in a trade to get the most return back? Given Braun’s shooting and Cam’s ceiling, there’s only one answer. And it’s the awful, uncomfortable one.
