Troy Renck: Sportsbooks, man. Starting to think their two cents is the reason they got rid of the penny. I wasn’t a fan of Team Run It Back, but predicting the Broncos to finish third in the AFC West seems disrespectful. If that bothers you, then a significant projection for Bo Nix’s season will make your skin crawl. The biggest books have set Nix’s over-under for touchdown passes between 23.5 and 24.5. Reasonable? Well. Either number would represent a nadir for the former Oregon standout. Where do you think Nix finishes in his third season?
Parker Ҳ:Well, Troy, I am just a humble beat reporter who stumbled into the debate room this week and I certainly am no betting man, but every time we venture to the desert for AFC West football, I am reminded that the bookmakers seem to be pretty good at what they do. Imagine the electric bills in those casinos. I tend to agree with you that 23.5 feels a little light, though there are multiple factors — some that would be fine for the Broncos and some that definitely would not be — that might be pushing the line a little bit lower. Nix has a new play-caller in Davis Webb, which is being largely hailed as a good thing, including by head coach Sean Payton himself. But perhaps Webb will stay more committed to running the ball. Perhaps it will take him a bit of time to get his sea legs, especially given Denver’s brutal stretch of opponents to open the season. What if Nix gets hurt and misses four games? So much talk about his ankle this offseason, but an aggravation there obviously isn’t the only issue that could cost him time over a long season.
Renck: Put it this way: If Nix goes under the betting number, he is taking the season down into the deep with him. The Broncos want to run the ball more effectively. Payton writes it on his play sheet and will yell it into Webb’s ears on game day. However, the Broncos are a passing team, leaning on the short game. No one has dropped back more over the last two years than Nix. He led the league in attempts last season with 612. Even if that number dips, the addition of Jaylen Waddle screams that Nix will throw at least 25 touchdowns. Why? He threw 29 as a rookie and 25 a year ago. There is no way that number drops unless he or Waddle gets hurt.
Ҳ:Could be, but — and this is strictly a guess from this hazy, early-summer vantage point — perhaps Webb wants Nix not only to not lead in pass attempts but also to come down considerably. That wouldn’t be a knock on his faith in his quarterback. Instead, it would be trying to take some pressure off him. Payton talks all the time about not putting quarterbacks on the high dive, but Nix has spent his first two seasons in the league working mostly from the 10-meter platform. If the Broncos build the kind of running game they think they can, 24 touchdown passes can be just fine. Denver had just 12 rushing scores in 2024 and only one of them was on an explosive run. That was all of 14 yards. The rest came from 8 or closer in. Last year, those numbers jumped to 18 and six. Good, but not great. The 18 TDs tied for No. 11. Their 10-plus run mark overall (51) was tied for No. 15 and their run rate (41.8%) was No. 22. All of those could realistically improve. A year ago, Seattle threw for 25 touchdown passes and finished third in the NFL in scoring. The play-caller, Klint Kubiak, got a Super Bowl title and a head coaching job out of it.
Renck: Webb was schooled in the Air Raid before the invention of the Air Pod. He is a few years removed from playing in the NFL. And he has a catalytic weapon in Waddle. The Broncos’ receivers ranked nearly last in yards per reception last season — 27th at 11.7 yards per catch, to be exact. Waddle averaged 14.2 in 2025. He is not a high-volume scorer, but posting eight touchdowns remains in reach opposite of Courtland Sutton because of his ability to turn short strikes into pay dirt. Realistically, Waddle, Sutton (eight) and Troy Franklin (five) should combine for 21 touchdowns. That means if the tight end position returns from witness protection and RJ Harvey and Jonah Coleman catch a few well-timed wheel routes, Nix should finish closer to 30 touchdown passes than 25. I know they call Las Vegas Lost Wages for a reason. Casinos are built on bettors’ losses. But with Webb in charge and Nix healthy, the quarterback will establish a career-best, not a career-worst, in passing scores. Book it.
