Broncos at 49ers
When: 2:25 p.m. Sunday
³:Levi’s Stadium
TV: KCNC-4
Radio: 850 AM, 94.1 FM
Series: The two legacy franchises have faced each other 16 times. Each team has won eight times. Denver won the most recent contest in a 11-10 slugfest. Neither offense crossed 300 yards, and both defenses sacked the opposing quarterbacks — Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo — four times.
In the spotlight: Can anybody pressure Brock Purdy?
There have been just not to take a sack through the first three games of a season: Peyton Manning, Andy Dalton and now Brock Purdy. The 49ers offensive line has allowed the lowest pressure rate in the NFL season at 22.5%. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the only other quarterback to face a sub-30% pressure rate so far this year.
And when teams do send blitzes at Purdy, he’s decimated opposing defenses. Purdy leads the NFL in most metrics against the blitz this year, including a whopping 155.2 passer rating. The 49ers’ quarterback’s processing speed before the play is elite. The marriage between San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan and Purdy is clicking better than ever in their fifth season together.
“(Purdy’s) playing at a real high level, very decisive. He’s through his progressions fast,” coach Sean Payton said. “[Shanahan] and those guys have done a great job, whether he’s under center or in the gun. The mix of run, play pass and drop back is impressive. You see in three weeks, not only no sacks, first in third down, first in red zone, very efficient. He’s making all the throws.”
But after facing the Rams in Week 1, the 49ers have played two of the worst defensive lines in football. The Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins are tied for the least amount of pressures in the NFL this year. Purdy will face a much stiffer test against a Broncos defense that just pressured Matthew Stafford 24 times in Week 3. Nik Bonitto will likely face tackle Trent Williams — if Williams plays — which will be an All-Pro vs. All-Pro matchup. On the interior, Zach Allen should have an advantage against the 49ers’ guards. Allen is off to another fast start, recording 12 pressures and three sacks.
If Denver can pressure Purdy, its defensive backs should have no issue corralling the 49ers’ wideouts. Mike Evans is questionable to play with a rib injury, Deebo Samuel is not the player he once was, and the tertiary wide receivers are unproven. The issue for Denver is that George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey are elite options over the middle of the field, where the Broncos’ defense has occasionally struggled to cover.
“They throw a lot of stuff at you offensively. It starts with McCaffrey in the backfield and what he is able to do not only in the run game, but in the pass game as well. He’s definitely a threat coming out of the backfield. Then you have Kittle, and Deebo and all of those guys making plays for them,” cornerback Patrick Surtain II said.
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run: Denver keeps winning games, but it’s been at the expense of the team’s running game. The Broncos’ ground attack is the second-worst in football through three weeks, ahead of only the Green Bay Packers (48.7 yards per game). J.K. Dobbins hasn’t looked like himself, RJ Harvey has missed time, and Jonah Coleman is on injured reserve. The offensive line has struggled to pave holes for the backs, and the running backs have not capitalized when they do. San Francisco’s defensive weak link is its rush defense, but it’s hard to anticipate the Broncos being able to move the ball on the ground until they prove it. Slight edge: 49ers
When Broncos pass: There’s been a drastic difference between the Broncos’ passing game in the first and second halves of games. Bo Nix has started games so slowly that even Payton admitted the team needed to find a way to establish Nix’s rhythm earlier. Nix should have time in the pocket this week, as nearly the entire 49ers’ defensive line, including star edge rusher Nick Bosa, will miss Sunday’s game with injuries. Jacoby Brissett just threw for 280 yards, albeit on 52 passes, and Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis posted a 103 rating against the 49ers. Edge: Broncos
When 49ers run: When you have a trio of a top running back, elite left tackle and one of the best running game play callers in football, chances are your running game is pretty good. The 49ers’ rushing offense is sixth in the NFL at 136 yards per game. McCaffrey is still an elite player at 30 years old, and San Francisco’s offensive line is playing at a high level. Meanwhile, Denver’s rushing defense is currently the third-worst in football, surrendering at least five yards per carry to starting running backs. Edge: 49ers
When 49ers pass: This will be a strength-on-strength fight. Purdy is the only quarterback to not be sacked this season and is playing like an early MVP candidate. Denver’s pass rush has not created as much pressure as in its record-breaking season last year, but Bonitto and Allen are still among the best at their respective positions. Purdy could be without his top receiver, as Evans’ status is questionable for Sunday. McCaffrey, Kittle and Samuel are still a competent trio of pass catchers, though. How the Broncos’ linebackers defend the middle of the field, where the 49ers love to attack, will be key. Slight edge: Broncos
Special Teams: While Will Lutz did miss a 43-yard attempt against the Rams, the kick hit the upright, and Lutz has been one of the NFL’s most dependable kickers since entering the league in 2016. The 49ers had some significant special teams issues of their own against the Cardinals. Defensive back and returner Siran Neal fumbled a punt that the Cardinals recovered, setting up an Arizona touchdown, and kicker Eddy Piñeiro missed two extra points. Edge: Broncos
DzԲ:Kyle Shanahan used to run alongside Denver’s sidelines and hang out in the locker room as a child while his father Mike Shanahan was the Broncos’ coach. He’s faced the Broncos twice since becoming San Francisco’s coach in 2017, going 1-1. Shanahan’s regarded as one of the best coaches in the NFL, and his defensive coordinator hire of Raheem Morris has paid dividends so far this season. The chess match between Shanahan and Vance Joseph will be exciting to watch. Edge: Even
Tale of the tape
| Stat | Broncos | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 275 (28th) | 399.3 (5th) |
| Rush offense | 81 (31st) | 136.3 (6th) |
| Pass offense | 194 (22nd) | 263 (7th) |
| Points per game | 20 (21st) | 32.7 (2nd) |
| Total defense | 380.7 (29th) | 313 (9th) |
| Run defense | 143.7 (30th) | 105.7 (15th) |
| Pass defense | 237 (25th) | 207.3 (15th) |
| Points allowed | 23.3 (17th) | 16.7 (3rd) |
By the numbers
+0.17. Denver’s defense has allowed the most expected points added per running play in the NFL this year.
24%. San Francisco created pressure on just 24% of the Cardinals’ dropbacks last week. With an injury-ravaged defensive line, it could be hard for the 49ers to force Nix out of the pocket.
44.6.Bo Nix’s passer rating when blitzed this season.
19.The number of injured players the 49ers have had this season, . Nine players are out for the season.
X-factors
Broncos: The tight ends. Denver’s tight ends have scored in every game this season, including two touchdowns for the unheralded Nate Adkins. The Broncos have been impressed with the improvements Evan Engram’s made in the blocking department and he’s still a viable receiving option. Fellow tight end Adam Trautman has been impressed by Engram’s growth.
“He wanted to improve (his blocking), and he has. It’s good for our offense,” Trautman said. “It adds another element to our offense that I know he’s worked really hard on”
Cardinals tight end Trey McBride, who Arizona funnels its passing game through, recorded nine catches for 75 yards against the 49ers.
49ers: Mike Evans. Brought in from Tampa Bay this offseason, Evans has been quarterback Brock Purdy’s favorite target. The big receiver is tied for the team lead in targets and catches.
Evans was carted off the field Sunday with a rib injury, but the early prognosis on his injury has been positive, Shanahan said. Evans is considered “day-to-day,” and while his game status for Sunday is unclear, he avoided a serious injury. Shanahan did say Evans had a chance of playing in Week 4.
“We’ll have to evaluate him throughout the week,” Shanahan said.
If he plays, Evans would occupy Surtain’s attention. Without Evans, the 49ers receiver room would be down to Samuel Sr., Jacob Cowing, Brandin Cooks (practice squad) and Jordan Watkins.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, Broncos writer: 49ers 26, Broncos 23.
Sean Payton’s team found ways to get the job done in back-to-back home games against very good teams. The challenge on the road is different. Plus, San Francisco is humming offensively, both in the pass and running the ball. The Denver offense is going to have to put points on the board and possess the ball. And not just in the second half.
Sam Jane, Broncos writer: Broncos 30, 49ers 27.
Denver’s offense finally breaks out against an injury-ridden 49ers’ defense. Morris is a smart defensive coordinator who will likely try to blitz Nix, but the Broncos should still be able to move the ball efficiently. If Denver starts the game poorly, watch out, but I expect the Broncos to play much better in the first half this week. Ultimately, McCaffrey will rack up plenty of yards out of the backfield, but it will be Harvey who scores the game-winning touchdown on a reception.
Troy Renck, columnist: 49ers 24, Broncos 20.
The Broncos’ step-on-banana-peel starts will finally bite them against arguably the league’s best team through three weeks. The 49ers do things well that the Broncos don’t — like run the ball. Want to know why quarterback Brock Purdy looks like an MVP candidate? He plays brilliantly off Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey is a plaid-on-stripes mismatch in space for the Broncos’ linebackers, and tight end George Kittle is one of the league’s toughest covers. It will prove too much for the Rockies to overcome on the road.
Sean Keeler, columnist: 49ers 26, Broncos 20.
Think Christian McCaffrey’s smiling? Only the Panthers (144.7 yards) are giving up more rushing yards per game to opponent running backs than the Broncos’ 129.7 yards per tilt after three games. Only the Bengals (47.0 yards) and Bills (45.0) are allowing more receiving yards per game to opposing backs than the Broncos’ 43.7. Living dangerously means living well for Bo Nix at Empower Field. But the football gods keep receipts, too — get down 16-0 to start the third quarter at Levi’s Stadium, Little Shanny might beat the living pants off you.
