Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
Hey, Parker. I’m keeping it short and sweet: Is Bo Nix our long-term QB? Do you see any scenario where we decide he’s good, but not good enough, has already reached his ceiling, and look elsewhere? This seems unlikely, but with a very talented conference and league, how much patience will Payton and the front office have? The drop in his early season stats compared to the last two years is concerning, but how concerning?
— Mark Petruska, Fort Atkinson, Wis.
Hey Mark, thanks for writing in from the Dairyland and getting us going this week. Much appreciated.
If quarterback Bo Nix’s propensity to start slow in games is “the $6 million question,” as head coach Sean Payton said after the Broncos beat the Rams in Week 3, then ultimately the quarterback’s overall performance and long-term future is more like the $60 million a year question.
This may not be the most satisfying answer, but the truth of it is that all of the major decisions are still far enough out that they don’t have to be made or even deeply contemplated yet and the first round of decisions really don’t have to be made until well after the season.
In the best case for Denver, Nix erases all doubt over the rest of this season and the sides start talking about a mega-extension when he becomes eligible next spring. In the worst case, he regresses badly and the Broncos hit the offseason already wondering what they should do next at the position. The middle ground is hardly ideal — though itap not as bad as missing altogether — and probably looks something like C.J. Stroud/Houston territory. Talk about a deal after Year 3, exercise the fifth-year option in the process (currently projected to be ), then be willing but not thrilled about proceeding into Year 4 without a long-term solution if there’s not some middle-ground number to be agreed on. If the season ended today, you might be looking at something like this general area with the Broncos and Nix. But as we all know, the season isn’t over yet.
A couple of things are undeniable at this point in Nix’s favor: There is seemingly unanimity around the franchise that he is the right type of person and the right type of leader. That counts for something. Clearly he’s shown the ability to create magic in games and, really, to play at a high level. He just hasn’t done the last part consistently. I’m sure everyone around the Broncos was hoping he’d leave no doubt right out of the gate this season. There’d be a big jump in performance, he’d elevate into — or at least toward — the upper echelon of quarterbacks in the NFL and boom, easy call.
So far that hasn’t happened. Itap also four games against really good teams. But itap also now 38 regular-season and two playoff games for his career.
Watch Nix play that divisional game against Buffalo and it looks like an easy call. Watch him play Sunday against San Francisco and itap anything but. The key is evaluating the whole picture — and not just him, but everything else, too. The whole picture for Nix’s first three seasons is still a long way from being fully painted. Then, down the road, there’s also the question that always plays a role, particularly with quarterbacks: What are the other options and do you really have better ones?
For now, whatap clear is that Nix’s overall play through four games so far hasn’t marked the big step forward he and the Broncos were hoping for in Year 3. He could go on a heater — he’s done it before — and change the tenor of that conversation quickly. In the meantime, pressure is only going to increase, first because the Broncos have a talented roster and Super Bowl expectations and also because of the possible impact on future contract talks.
Last thought: Nix isn’t the only 2024 quarterback going through a rough patch. Drake Maye was an MVP candidate last year but got off to a horrible start this season before a big win Sunday against Buffalo. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are both hurt. J.J. McCarthy’s already been traded. The guy with the best recent stretch is Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr., and he missed so much time early in his career with last year’s knee injury that the evaluation on him (outside the questions raised by a long injury history) is just starting.
What is the deal with Bo Nix? We heard this offseason how he was playing on a higher level IQ-wise, but it feels like outside of the second halves vs. the Jags and Rams, this is the worst he has played as an NFL QB.
— Mike C., Santa Clarita, Calif.
I’ve always believed in Bo Nix, even dating back to his days at Oregon and Auburn. But as the games go by and the Broncos keep finding themselves in similar positions, I can’t help but wonder if Bo Nix is just Tim Tebow with some better passing mechanics. Denver’s offense does nothing for three-plus quarters and then out of nowhere, Nix starts to play like a Pro Bowler and brings the team back from the darkness. Tebow was fun because lightning in a bottle could strike at any time, but in order for Denver to take the next step, they had to move on. Not saying it should happen, but at what point does Denver need to do the same with Bo?
— Nate, Clarksville, Tenn.
Oh, more Bo Nix questions? I thought we covered it all above. Of course, itap not surprising that Nix was the center of so many readers’ questions this week, and thanks to Mike C. and Nate for writing in.
There’s not one thing or even a couple that have kept Nix and the rest of the Broncos offense from getting on track consistently early this year. But here’s a starting point: One of Payton’s most-used lines is that a quarterback’s two best friends are a good run game and a good defense. The Broncos have like 0.75 out of two so far. They’ve mostly got good defense — Kansas City notwithstanding — and they’ve had almost no consistent run game.
That, to continue the Payton-isms, leaves the quarterback on the high dive more often than you want him up there. It leads to more long-yardage situations and makes defenses more willing to sit back and play coverage. We’re seeing both so far this fall.
There are other issues, too. Nix’s completion percentage is down. He’s not throwing the ball down the field as much — and didn’t much at all against San Francisco — and he’s not taking off and running as much, either.
The coming weeks, starting Sunday against the Chargers, will provide more context on whether this is a rough patch for Nix in the opening month under a new play-caller in Davis Webb or if something is more systemically wrong.
Last year, Denver faced only a few teams that played above .500 because of its 2024 standing. I know it’s early in the season, but with a tougher schedule this year, aren’t we able to better evaluate the team? Can we say that the management was blinded by the surprising 14-3 record (including the comeback wins and the winning percentage in tight games) and overrated its offensive assets?
— Sylvain, Montréal, Québec
Hey Sylvain, thanks for writing in and good questions. I don’t think the Broncos were blinded by their gaudy record, though they overwhelmingly opted for retention this offseason. They made the big push for Jaylen Waddle and otherwise brought back their same guys. They also talked about needing to be better this year than last because of the number of one-score games they won, and simply because they came up short in January.
As far as better evaluating this season, itap certainly a tougher schedule. By through four weeks, the four best teams in football are San Francisco, Jacksonville, the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City. Look familiar? It might, because those are the Broncos’ first four opponents this year. No. 5 is Seattle, which comes to Denver next week. So, what can we learn about going 2-2 against four of the best teams in football? Probably nothing too terribly bad, especially since Denver has done it without much offensive consistency. The Broncos, by the way, are No. 11 in this week’s FPI.
Can you please help me understand how our O-line gets the publicity of being “good,” but Bo Nix has no pocket to throw from, and the RBs seldom have a hole to run through?
— William Christensen, Orem, Utah
Hey William, thanks for writing in as always. Watch the San Francisco game again and see what you think about “no pocket to throw from.” Looked to me like Nix had a lot of time in the pocket fairly consistently. He’s been pressured more this year than in past years, but his 32.2% pressure rate is No. 24 in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. Only Brock Purdy (zero) and Sam Darnold (four in three games) have been sacked fewer times than Nix’s five.
In terms of the line’s performance in the run game, Denver’s 1.53 yards rushing before contact per attempt is No. 10 in the league and the backs are averaging 0.5 yards less than expected per carry, which is tied for No. 29.
, ranking Denver No. 23 overall in pass blocking and No. 20 in run blocking. They’ve been top 10 in both categories in past years.
To me, this adds up to two things being true at the same time: The Broncos’ offensive line has been solid overall and, to my eye, isn’t the biggest issue in the running game. And, at the same time, solid is not what you sign up for when you have the same group together for three straight years (four years for all but center Luke Wattenberg) and they’re all well-paid veterans.
How are the two TEs from Utah doing developmental wise? Will they see the field by the end of the season? We need TE help.
— Tom Rollings, Crestone
Hey Tom, thanks for writing in and good question. Seventh-round rookie Dallen Bentley hasn’t been active for games so far this season, but Denver likes his blocking ability. He’s headed for at least a partial redshirt year, though you never know what happens later in the season if he makes strides or if injuries strike the group.
Caleb Lohner’s an interesting one to keep an eye on. He (and Frank Crum for that matter) are eligible to return from injured reserve as early as this week. It might still be a bit for Lohner, as general manager George Paton said before the regular season started that late October was a rough target for his return.
Lohner’s a big athlete, former basketball player and, to hear Payton talk during the spring, a promisingly physical player in the run game. It seems a little ambitious to bet that a guy who has never appeared in an NFL game and barely played college football will come back from injury and immediately make a big impact. At the same time, Denver could use the help and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lohner get a shot in some capacity this season. The team’s tight end position isn’t producing much statistically so far this season, but they’ve got fairly defined roles for Evan Engram, Adam Trautman and Nate Adkins. We’ll see in a few weeks if Lohner can make enough progress to try to shake that up.
Parker, the Broncos were linked to Brian Robinson Jr. and Kenneth Walker III at one time this past spring, why were they willing to guarantee $10 million a year to someone they knew and had experienced all the brokenness of him, J.K. Dobbins? Instead of biting the bullet and paying up to $15 million per season and having one of the top two running backs for a full season, they’re getting at most likely a half season, which then prorates out to $20 million per year.
There had to be better backs out there and they knew if they got one, most likely their first-half worries every game would mostly disappear. Their loyalty to players at times blinds them. I know that the comparable stats between Walker and Dobbins seemed to favor Dobbins, but stats like these need to be taken with a grain of salt.
Availability trumps stats when looking at Dobbins.
— Gary, Arvada
Hey Gary, thanks for writing in. The implication that they paid Dobbins similar money to what they might have needed to get a Kenneth Walker or Travis Etienne (the top of the free-agent RB class) isn’t really there, no matter how you slice it. Brian Robinson Jr. signed for one year and $2.5 million
The Broncos gave Dobbins $8 million guaranteed on a two-year deal. They can get out of it easily after this season if they want to. Walker and Etienne each got essentially $28 million guaranteed.
Should Denver have been willing to go up to that kind of mark? Itap kind of moot, honestly. They weren’t interested in Walker at those kind of numbers and Etienne basically said that all things being equal, he would have chosen to go home to New Orleans, which he did. Maybe Walker carries on as an elite back for years to come and the Broncos — and others — will kick themselves for not getting more involved.
Certainly, to your other point, availability is a big part of the equation. Thatap why Denver guaranteed only one year of Dobbins’ deal and tied a good chunk of its potential value — $4 million in total incentives plus $1 million in per-game roster bonuses for 2027– to availability and production.
One thing is clear so far this fall: The Broncos need more from Dobbins. If they don’t in the next couple of weeks, the door is wide open for Jonah Coleman when he returns from an ankle injury.
