Maybe I was wrong about the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Before this season, I picked them to finish third in the National League West, behind the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants. Before this weekend’s series at Coors Field, the Dodgers had the best record in baseball thanks to an 8-2 mark against the Padres and Giants.
To think that after picking Arizona and Toronto to finish last a year ago, and pretty much nailing the Rockies’ record the past three years, I thought I was getting pretty good at prognosticating.
“I don’t get why people continue to make predictions,” Dodgers second baseman Jeff Kent said. “I always tell reporters this: If you think you’re that good, why are you writing for a newspaper? Why don’t you go to Vegas, make some money and retire?”
Because Vegas has a way of uncovering the full truth. Yes, I picked Arizona and Toronto to finish last in 2004, but I also picked the Cubs and the Phillies to finish first. Fifty-fifty means the house wins, not me.
Still, when you’re wrong, the tendency is to explain. The 2005 Dodgers just didn’t add up. They had lost, in a span of two baseball months: Adrian Beltre, Shawn Green, Paul Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota, Kaz Ishii and Jose Lima. They got Steve Finley in return, then lost him. The acquisitions of Kent, Derek Lowe, J.D. Drew and Jose Valentin didn’t seem like enough, especially when incomparable closer Eric Gagne went down.
The incessant roster changes made by Dodgers general manager Paul De- Podesta also reminded me of the early years of Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd. Looking back, one of the worst things that happened to O’Dowd was he had too much early success. Remember Gabe White for Manny Aybar? O’Dowd immediately rebuilt the Rockies from last in 1999 to first by July 4, 2000.
But what happened, every time the Rockies hit a rough stretch, O’Dowd thought he could correct it. He tried too hard to make an impact. It led to dealing away Jody Gerut, Josh Bard and Chone Figgins for Kimera Bartee.
O’Dowd has since learned his lessons – contrary to his reputation, he has made very few moves the past three years – but now DePodesta appears to be the eager, young GM.
The only difference is, the Dodgers won the NL West in DePodesta’s first season and three weeks into his second season, they’re in first again.
“Any time you make a lot of changes, you leave yourself vulnerable to speculation and criticism,” DePodesta said. “To most people, change makes them uncomfortable. It’s a lot easier to stay status quo.”
To the mob of “Moneyball” critics, get this: At midweek, the Dodgers led the majors with 21 homers and their .360 on-base percentage was second to the New York Yanks’ .363. Moneyball, indeed.
“If Paul were a stock,” said Billy Beane, the Oakland A’s GM who mentored DePodesta, “I’d buy him.”
I should have put more stock into Kent’s decision to sign with the Dodgers. Wherever he goes, winning teams follow. He broke in with Toronto and earned a World Series ring in 1992. He has played in five postseasons with three teams – Cleveland, San Francisco (three times) and Houston.
So why did he believe, despite all their changes, the Dodgers would contend?
“Because of my experience and exposure to long seasons for so many years, I understand the value of a quality pitching staff,” Kent said. “That’s the biggest reason why I’m here.”
Oh, yes, pitching. It’s the Dodger Way, although Los Angeles did get smoked 9-1 here Friday. Which means either the Dodgers, like everybody else, can’t pitch at Coors. Or, there’s plenty of time for the Dodgers to prove me right.
Mike Klis can be reached at 303-820-5440 or mklis@denverpost.com.
