Chicago – Anyone averaging single digits for a team with five consonants for every vowel in its name picked the wrong year to enter the NBA draft. The same goes for those who made their name dunking on scared opponents preoccupied with SATs and the prom.
It may be an aberration. It may be an overreaction, but the top half of Tuesday’s NBA draft looks like it will be filled with the once-endangered species known as the college player.
In other words, names most basketball fans can recognize.
“I think we will see some college players who have two or three years’ experience go higher (than usual),” Nuggets general manager Kiki Vandeweghe predicted.
When Channing Frye looked around the hotel conference room set up to introduce the best of the NBA’s next rookie class to the media here recently, the Arizona center knew he was on the right side of a trend. Of the 11 players invited, only Gerald Green of Houston’s Gulf Shores Academy had spent no time on a college campus.
“First it was Europeans, then it was high-schoolers, then it was Europeans again,” Frye said of recent drafts. “Now it’s a class of juniors and seniors. That’s fine.”
Not since Kenyon Martin went to New Jersey in 2000 has a college player been first off the board. In all likelihood that will change this year, with Utah’s Andrew Bogut or North Carolina’s Marvin Williams expected to go No. 1. Not since 1999 have four college players taken the first four slots in the draft. That could also be duplicated.
In addition to Bogut and Williams, Wake Forest’s Chris Paul and Illinois’ Deron Williams are expected to be picked high.
What has changed? Some around the league say teams are wising up after getting burned by taking players on potential, not production. (Nuggets fans still trying to forget Nikoloz Tskitishvili can identify.)
Others say it’s simply a cycle.
“I just think that we’ve exhausted players from Europe and the high school class probably isn’t as deep this year,” Utah senior vice president for basketball operations Kevin O’Connor said.
How old school has the NBA swung? Just two seniors, Rafael Araujo and Luke Jackson, were 2004 lottery picks. Frye, New Mexico’s Danny Granger, Syracuse’s Hakim Warrick, Oklahoma State’s Joey Graham and Kansas’ Wayne Simien are seniors who could be lottery picks this year.
In the eyes of Milwaukee general manager Larry Harris, the stigma surrounding the college veteran should have lifted long ago.
“The NBA over the years has taken all the freshmen and all the sophomores and all the high school kids,” Harris said. “After a while there is an attrition that’s taken place. The seniors, as they get to be seniors, either they’re gone or everybody says, ‘What’s wrong with them?’ It’s really not anything that’s wrong with them. It’s just there’s not a lot of them left.”
It appears the days of taking a chance on an unproven foreigner with a high pick might be nearing an end. Talk is that Spaniard Fran Vazquez could be chosen in the top 10, but at least he’s 22 years old.
No other foreign player is getting much pre-draft hype.
Before Dirk Nowitzki, Manu Ginobili or Peja Stojakovic became all-stars here, all averaged over 20 points overseas. But recent high picks such as Darko Milicic (Detroit, No. 2) and Tskitishvili (No. 5) arrived in the NBA as teenagers with microscopic scoring averages. They failed to get off the bench much. The Nuggets finally gave up on Tskitishvili this past season and traded him.
“If they don’t dominate in Europe, play at a very high level and average a lot of points, they don’t have a chance (in the NBA),” said Phoenix coach Mike D’Antoni, who coached Tskitishvili in the Italian League. “That seems to be the way it goes. … I think we got a little antsy as Americans to bring them over too early. When you bring them over early, then it’s really a boom or bust, and mostly the bust.”
Added Roko Ukic, a Croatian guard some scouts say can transition smoothly to the NBA, “They want players that can actually play down there and can actually be a good part of the team.”
D’Antoni said he knew Tskitishvili wasn’t ready for the NBA, but if a team wanted to throw millions of dollars at him, how could Tskitishvili refuse, even if he had averaged 6.6 points per game?
This year, UNC’s Williams is a consensus top-three pick, though he did not start in college. And while Williams only averaged 11.3 points as a freshman, D’Antoni said there’s no comparison between him and an unproven European player.
“You could see at the highest level of college he was an unbelievable player,” D’Antoni said. “It’s a little different than if you’re averaging two points someplace in Europe.”
Bogut, an Australian, said he sees a trend of more foreigners opting to play American college ball as a way to erase scouts’ doubts. Araujo, a Brazilian who attended Brigham Young, and Chicago’s Luol Deng, from Sudan by way of Duke, each became 2004 lottery picks.
“It’s a much closer step than Europe,” Bogut said. “You practice in NBA facilities in the summer and play with those guys, be in NBA cities, see NBA games. You know what it’s like. You know what the regime’s like. You know how the players live on and off the court.
“In Europe it’s a bit more different, honestly. You’ve got one or two games a week. You’ve got a more relaxed lifestyle. I think that’s why a lot of people are choosing to go to college.”
Still, the foreigners keep coming, even if NBA teams are more wary. Eleven foreign players are on the early entry list for this year’s draft. That surprised Denver assistant general manager Jeff Weltman.
“There are a lot of guys in this draft who are rolling the dice, and that’s pretty rare, especially foreign guys who have the ability to withdraw their names as many times as they want and re-enter the draft, whereas the college kids only have one time,” he said.
Staff writer Adam Thompson can be reached at 303-820-5447 or at athompson@denverpost.com
Sizing up the draft prospects
With workouts over, the players measured and the statistics analyzed, The Denver Post asked an NBA front-office executive to reveal his top five prospects at each position in anticipation of Tuesday’s draft. Here is his analysis:
POINT GUARD
1. Chris Paul, 6-feet, Wake Forest
Point guard skills with exceptional speed and outstanding jump shot.
2. Deron Williams, 6-3, Illinois
Great size at the point, rock solid decision-maker.
3. Raymond Felton, 6-1, North Carolina
Excels in open court using exceptional speed. One of the best on-ball defenders in the draft.
4. Jarrett Jack, 6-3, Georgia Tech
Size and toughness to step into an NBA rotation. Has improved every year, especially his jumper.
5. Roko Ukic, 6-5, Croatia
Crafty European point guard with ability to create for himself and others. Has shown well in European postseason camps.
SHOOTING GUARD
1. Gerald Green, 6-8, Houston Gulf Shores Academy
High school phenom has wowed scouts with McGrady-type athleticism and a jumper to boot.
2. Martell Webster, 6-7, Seattle Prep
At 6-7, 235 pounds, legit “two” skills and one of the best jumpers in the draft. High school player, but NBA-ready.
3. Rashad McCants, 6-3, North Carolina
Maybe best of the bunch. Only measured 6-3 in Chicago, but 7-foot wingspan and complete NBA skills package. Played on NCAA championship team.
4. Antoine Wright, 6-7, Texas A&M
Wiry, athletic two-guard has toned down his game and improved his jumper during his career. Draws comparisons to Latrell Sprewell.
5. Francisco Garcia, 6-7, Louisville
Versatile, multi-position player. Leader. Likes the open court and has improved his jumper significantly.
SMALL FORWARD
1. Marvin Williams, 6-9, North Carolina
Exceptionally skilled front-line player with inside-outside offensive capabilities. The sixth man on NCAA championship team, his best days are in front of him.
2. Danny Granger, 6-8, New Mexico
Wingman near conference leaders in almost all major categories. On the rise.
3. Hakim Warrick, 6-9, Syracuse
Extremely tall, athletic wingman with nose for the ball and excellent front-line speed.
4. Joey Graham, 6-7, Oklahoma State
Strong, physical player with NBA body. Has improved skills and expanded range to jump from power forward to small forward.
5. Yaroslav Korolev, 6-9, Russia
Talented young Euro. Showed well in Moscow last month. Many say they believe he has a guarantee in the lottery.
POWER FORWARD
1. Charlie Villanueva, 6-11, Connecticut
Super-skilled forward has inside-outside scoring skills and impressed in workouts.
2. Fran Vazquez, 6-10, Spain
Spaniard posted solid year and in addition to size, has intensity and a fast-improving jumper. At age 22 figures to be more ready than most.
3. Sean May, 6-9, North Carolina
Possibly the best hands in the draft for a front-line player. Exceptionally skilled passer. One of the keys to the championship season at Carolina.
4. Wayne Simien, 6-9, Kansas
Oft-injured KU star finished strong and brings strength, maturity and well-rounded game to draft.
5. Andray Blatche, 6-11, South Kent (Conn.) Prep
High school star with size, inside-outside scoring ability and tons of potential. Has impressed in workouts.
CENTER
1. Andrew Bogut, 7-0, Utah
Unique blend of passing skills, rebounding instincts, great hands and true-center size make him a low-post throwback player.
2. Channing Frye, 6-11, Arizona
Excellent-shooting big man has added size, strength and improved every year. Deadly shooter.
3. Johan Petro, 7-0, France
Young Frenchman entered draft last year only to withdraw. Has grown an inch and brings a size/skill package to the draft.
4. Mile Ilic, 7-1, Serbia and Montenegro
Improved dramatically the second half of the season, and then surprised the league by leaving his name in the draft. May have a guarantee in the 20s.
5. Martynas Andriuskevicius, 7-2, Lithuania
Slender center surprised the league by leaving his name in the draft. Not physically ready, but excellent stroke and offensive agility indicate big upside for a team willing to wait.
– Adam Thompson
