It’s only a (good) first step.
The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases reported last week that researchers had successfully tested a vaccine they believe can protect against the frightening avian influenza that has killed millions of birds – and nearly 60 people.
The current outbreak of “bird flu” started in Asia in 2003. The virus – tagged A(H5N1) by scientists – has cropped up in about a dozen countries and caused the deaths of well over 100 million birds, either by the virus or by destruction of birds to prevent spread of the disease.
Although doctors haven’t documented a human transmission of the virus, the fear is that it could mutate (as flu bugs do) and pass from person to person. The world’s human population does not have built-up resistance to this bug, raising worries of a pandemic like the one in 1918 that killed more than 40 million people. A World Health Organization estimates the death toll from from an A(H5N1) epidemic at 2 million to 7.4 million. More pessimistic scenarios are as high as 60 million.
A vaccine is a vital tool in preventing such an epidemic, so news of researchers’ success was welcome. But people should not be lulled into thinking that the threat has been averted.
First, the virus is still spreading in birds, and it’s moving west towards Europe. It’s now been found in Russian Siberia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Tibet. Some scientists worry that migrating wild birds will carry the virus farther afield – to India and North America.
Second, successful testing of a vaccine doesn’t mean quick availability. Although U.S. authorities already have 2 million doses on order, mass production can’t start until September. And further testing needs to be done on seniors and children.
Third, the vaccine-production industry has limited capacity – witness last winter’s shortages.
There’s little the public can do now about the threat of bird flu, but governments can do plenty. The first step is continuing to kill domestic bird flocks in areas where the virus has appeared. The U.S. and other developed nations should offer to help less-developed countries as needed.
And, aid to the vaccine industry may be necessary if a sufficient number of doses are to be produced in a timely fashion. It is only prudent to invest in the fight against such a threatening virus.
