Now comes the time of the season that must seem like Christmas to mathematicians, NFL geeks and devotees of undecipherable conundrums: trying to figure out exactly how the fast-approaching playoffs will break down.
If Jacksonville loses to Indianapolis, but beats Houston and Tennessee, and if Kansas City beats the two NFC teams remaining on its schedule, but loses to Cincinnati, and if Pittsburgh regains its swagger and rallies to sweep its remaining games …
It’s the expectation, the waiting and wondering, that will make this final month of play so delicious for everyone – except perhaps the coaches and players on the teams trying to earn their way in. But those who would have it any other way, by providing a voice of reason, by pointing out that there still are dozens of possible outcomes, are merely being Scrooges.
“Who knows?” Carolina coach John Fox said in his Monday news conference. “Some team might run the table in the last four games. There could be a team that’s 5-7 right now and gets into the playoffs.”
That probably won’t happen – not even in the NFC. However, the point is well-taken in a year in which the most the Indianapolis Colts can claim from their 12-0 record is that they’ll be in the playoffs. Not a division championship, not home- field advantage – just that they’re one of 12 teams that will be in the mix for Super Bowl XL.
Not that coach Tony Dungy doesn’t mind that glaring absurdity. It only makes it easier for him and his staff to get their players to deal with the here and now, rather than the idea of chasing history.
One point they’re already making in Naptown: As good as the Colts have been the past few seasons under Dungy, they have not had a first-round bye. That, said the coach, is on Indy’s mind more than are Don Shula and Bob Griese.
“We want to definitely get that bye,” Dungy said Monday. “It would be very important, the fact that we’d get the first round off and definitely have a first-round home game. Those are big, big things, and things we thought about as the season started.
“That’s like winning a playoff game without having to play. The opponent that you’re going to play, they had to play the week before, expend a lot of energy, injuries, and now you are sitting waiting on a team to come to you.”
Of course, the team that eliminated Indianapolis the past two years, and made the most of that enviable position, is the New England Patriots. In the current postseason configuration, the two-time defending champions won’t have that luxury this year, most likely playing on the opening weekend.
At first glance, there would be nothing to suggest that the Pats will be any sort of major players in the playoffs. Riddled by injuries all season, it took an unimpressive 16-3 win over the New York Jets on Sunday to bump the Pats to two games over .500. The week before, New England lost 26-16 to the Chiefs in a game that left quarterback Tom Brady as down as perhaps any time in his star-kissed career.
Monday, Brady and his mates were singing a different tune, and, yes, looking ahead. It’s not hard to imagine why. Now 7-5, the Patriots close the season with games against three sub-.500 teams – Buffalo, Miami and the Jets. Their other contest, vs. Tampa Bay, is at home.
That means New England could enter the playoffs at 11-5 and riding a five-game winning streak. If you’re a Jacksonville team trying to work quarterback Byron Leftwich back into the starting lineup, or a San Diego team hoping to forget the horrors of last season’s opening round, would you really want to have to travel to Foxborough for your opening playoff game?
“I think it would be pretty tough to play them at all, but especially if they were at home,” Chiefs tight end Tony Gonzalez said.
Of course, that opinion might change if New England were to lose at Buffalo on Sunday – which is why Patriots coach Bill Belichick isn’t going to play along with everyone trying to get a bead on what’s going to happen in early 2006.
“It’s day to day,” Belichick said Monday. “What was the reality on Saturday is different from what the reality was today. It’s different from what it was on opening night. It’s different probably than what it’s going to be two weeks from now. I don’t know. What it is today is get ready for Buffalo.”
Game of the week
Kansas City at Dallas
Not too long ago, the Cowboys looked like the NFC’s best bet to get to Detroit and the Chiefs didn’t seem like postseason material. The ‘Pokes are now a game behind the Giants in the NFC East and are being pushed for a wild-card berth by Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Atlanta. And, as impressive as K.C. has been the past two weeks, it doesn’t mean a thing if the Chiefs don’t continue to win.
What goes around …
After serving as a punch line as well as being every favorite homecoming opponent, the Minnesota Vikings have somehow managed to win five consecutive games and climb into the NFC playoff picture. And the funny part is that the team’s quest to recover from “Le Affaire Love Boat” can come at the expense of teams that have issues of their own. On Sunday, the Vikes beat Detroit – enough said. Next Sunday they meet the St. Louis Rams, who have lost three of their past four and are in turmoil around apparently deposed head coach Mike Martz. After that, Minnesota hosts Pittsburgh, which is riding a three-game losing streak.
Trending
During their three-game losing streak, the Steelers haven’t cracked 100 yards rushing. … On Sunday, Chicago beat Green Bay despite being 0-for-10 on third-down conversions.
Staff writer Anthony Cotton can be reached at 303-820-1292 or acotton@denverpost.com.
