Boulder – Storm researchers Tuesday squabbled over why the last Atlantic hurricane season was the most dangerous on record – and what should be done about it.
Among the disputed issues are whether climate change is making storms stronger or whether increased coastal development and other social factors are increasing storm risks.
Meeting at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the National Science Board’s working group collected input from scientists for a report to Congress and the president on hurricane-research priorities.
The board, which helps set national science policy, formed the working group after Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast and killed 1,300 people.
The hurricane also revealed major problems with the country’s storm readiness, said Warren Washington, chair of the National Science Board and an NCAR climate researcher.
The group plans to deliver its report before the June start of the next Atlantic hurricane season, Washington said.
The approximately 20 scientists gathered in Boulder, however, agreed on little more than the fact that hurricanes are likely to become more deadly and damaging in the future.
“Well, if there’s some controversy here, it’s because the science is controversial,” said Kelvin Droegemeier, co-chair of the National Science Board hurricane group and a meteorologist with the University of Oklahoma in Norman.
The meeting drew participants from Louisiana to California, and there were climate modelers, civil engineers, disaster-response experts and social psychologists.
Some attended the American Meteorological Society meeting last week in Atlanta, where a hurricane workshop was canceled because of strong disagreements among some of the planned participants about the effects of climate change and natural cycles on hurricane intensity.
Kevin Trenberth and Greg Holland, both climate researchers with the NCAR, argued Tuesday that climate change has increased the intensity of hurricanes around the world.
“This board needs to seriously look into increasing research activities in this area,” Holland said.
Others argued climate change is irrelevant, given the rate of coastal development, poor hurricane planning, response, and outdated construction practices.
“Yes, climate change is important, … but if the goal is to produce knowledge that helps people, we need to focus on all of these messy factors involving people: where society builds, how society builds, how society responds,” said Roger Pielke Jr., a policy scientist at the University of Colorado.
