Mexico City – The U.S. immigration debate could determine more than the future of illegal immigrants. It may help pick Mexico’s next president July 2.
A reform that legalizes undocumented Mexicans in the U.S. could boost conservative candidate Felipe Calderon and keep the ruling National Action Party in power.
More walls and troops at the border could tip the balance in favor of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, sweeping Mexico into Latin America’s shift to the left.
With an estimated 12 million Mexicans living in the United States, about half undocumented, any change in U.S. immigration policy provokes powerful reactions south of the border.
“It’s the hot topic right now,” said Mexican pollster Manuel Barberena. “The candidates all want to show they won’t bend to the United States, while promising migrants they will get them a better deal north of the border.”
U.S. immigration reform has been a cornerstone of the presidency of Vicente Fox. For nearly six years, he has lobbied the U.S.government to allow more legal migration, meeting regularly with President Bush and traveling to California, Utah and Washington.
Lopez Obrador, a fiery leftist, has accused Fox of being weak when dealing with Washington. When Bush announced plans to send 6,000 National Guard soldiers to the border, Lopez Obrador called Fox a U.S. “puppet” and “lackey” for not vigorously opposing the measure.
While Fox can’t seek re-election, his approval ratings could affect support for Calderon, his party’s candidate, who has a slight lead in the polls over the once- front-running Lopez Obrador.
“Lopez Obrador is using Fox as a patsy for Calderon. He has found it easier to run against Fox than Calderon because Calderon is slippery and difficult to get to,” political analyst Federico Estevez said.
Calderon, a career politician and son of a National Action Party founder, staked out his own nationalist credentials on the immigration issue, attacking the U.S. Senate for approving 370 miles of triple-layer border fencing.
“These measures increase the social and human costs for migrants and only benefit criminal groups,” he said.
Migration is most important to voters from poor villages that send much of their population north. Lopez Obrador has been stumping in these villages and is gaining substantial support there, pollsters say.
Third-place candidate Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party is also hitting the immigration issue hard with peasant farmers, a key base of the party.
