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Local air-quality experts will be closely watching pollution levels this weekend, and those readings could influence how the Front Range fares with federal clean-air goals.

Hot, dry, stagnant air is predicted to settle over the Denver area this weekend, making the formation of ozone likely.

Ozone is a prime ingredient in urban smog and can cause respiratory problems for the the young, elderly and the sick.

State health department officials knew early that this year might be a high-ozone summer.

“We’ve never seen a June like this before,” said Mike Silverstein, an air pollution control division manager with the state health department.

In addition to keeping the air clean, the region needs to avoid high ozone levels this summer in order to keep its three-year average below federally acceptable limits.

The nine-county Front Range region must show federal environmental regulators that ozone levels are within national air quality standards by 2007.

If the region breaks the agreement, major industrial sources such as power plants and refineries could be limited in their ability to expand.

On Thursday, the state health department and Regional Air Quality Council issued the 43rd ozone alert of the summer. That broke the record set in 2003 of 42 alerts, widely regarded as one of the worst ozone seasons in recent years.

The alerts are part of a regional public education campaign and don’t necessarily correlate with actual ozone levels.

As of Wednesday, the region has exceeded federal health-based standards for ozone 13 times. Last year, that level was exceeded eight times.

Driving concern about ozone this year is the unexpected increase in ozone-forming vapors from oil and gas operators in Weld and Adams counties.

The health department’s air quality control division initially projected flash emissions would equal 146 tons a day in 2007. That number is closer to 236 tons a day given the industry’s growth.

In order to comply with an agreement the region has with the Environmental Protection Agency on ozone pollution, flash emissions should be 91 tons a day, state health department officials say.

Industry officials dispute some of the data that indicate field emissions are increasing but don’t argue that drilling has substantially expanded in recent years north of Denver.

“I can’t speak for the industry, but I know Noble hopes to increase production as does probably the other companies out there,” said Curtis Rueter with Noble Energy Inc.

Staff writer Kim McGuire can be reached at 303-820-1240 or kmcguire@denverpost.com.

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