The contracts last winter explained their importance. The statistics this month reveal their value, contradicting a long-held baseball staple.
It’s been widely assumed the teams with the best starting rotation will win. This season, the common denominator among bullies is their bullpen.
“I don’t why that is, but it’s obviously the case,” Dodgers manager Grady Little said. “To reach the playoffs you have to be good in a lot of areas, but relievers are playing a bigger role this season.”
Of the teams with the top 10 bullpen ERAs, eight have winning records and six would advance to the playoffs. The Mets, built around a monster mash lineup, have quietly compiled the best relief corps, owning a stingy 3.00 ERA.
That helps make sense of the $41 million that setup men Kyle Farnsworth, Braden Looper and Scott Eyre received last season, and why Cincinnati general manager Wayne Krivsky was willing to trade two everyday players in July to provide reinforcements for the seventh and eighth innings.
“It was a price we had to pay,” Krivsky said. “We couldn’t wait any longer.”
By comparison, only six of the top 10 teams in starters’ ERA sit above .500. The Rockies’ rotation ranks 10th overall,will break every meaningful record in franchise history – and the club won’t sniff the playoffs because of an underwhelming offense.
Divided opinions
Bullpens more important than rotations – is this a statistical oddity or the signal of a growing trend? aps are divided.
“Hitters get a chance to see a starter so many times, they don’t see us relievers as much. You can dominate,” Rockies reliever Jose Mesa said. “A good bullpen can change everything. If a team feels like it only has to be ahead after six innings, game over, that’s a huge confidence boost.”
Baltimore pitching coach Leo Mazzone isn’t ready to concede that we are witnessing a revolution. Years of rocking his life away to the soothing rhythms of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz are seared into his head like a Mozart symphony.
“I think some of it is coincidence,” Mazzone told The Baltimore Sun.
Given the choice, Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson said he would prefer a strong bullpen over a strong rotation. Then again,his relievers rank first in the AL in ERA and haven’t lost a game this year when leading after eight innings. And despite all the fuss about the Dodgers’ improved lineup, their top four relievers – Joe Beimel, Brett Tomko, Jonathan Broxton and Takashi Saito – are 6-0 with a 1.91 ERA and 14 saves since July 27.
Late-season success
Last season, baseball held true to its roots. The final four teams – the Angels, White Sox, Cardinals and Astros – owned their leagues’ lowest starting ERAs. Anyone with a combustible rotation need not apply.
“Obviously, the bullpen plays an important role, but it’s about which team comes together at the end of the season and how they are playing at that time,” Padres closer Trevor Hoffman said. “Look at the White Sox last year. They didn’t need much of a bullpen until they got to the World Series.”
Hoffman touched on an important issue, which makes it difficult to point to bullpens as a determining factor for excellence. They have a symbiotic relationship with the rotation, akin to cornerbacks and defensive linemen. When grunts mount a pass rush, defensive backs get interceptions. If the quarterback performs without pressure, cornerbacks are, save for rare exceptions, exposed.
Same goes for bullpens. As Tigers manager Jim Leyland is fond of saying, “Relievers are best when you use them when you want to, not when you have to.”
Case in point: Last season, only one playoff team finished in the top 10 in total bullpen innings – the Padres, who were mulch in the first round. Heavy workloads for relievers is often the result of atrocious starting pitching.
So it’s the rotation that’s more important? Well, not exactly. Because of pitch counts, a starter rarely exceeds 100 on a regular basis, magnifying the role of the specialists.
“You know how the game is now – after five or six, the bullpen is up, ready to go. You’ve got lefties and righties all mixed together for all the matchups,” Mets reliever Chad Bradford said. “It seems like teams that are struggling now are the teams that are a little weaker on the backside.”
Still, bullpens require a team to bring the game to them, not unlike a football kicker. That makes it hard to see them as more valuable than starters. And yet consider this chilling question: Who would you rather have, a star with the last at-bat or the stud holding the ball on the mound last?
“Look at the teams leading in our division,” Rockies reliever Ray King said. “When they get the lead in the eighth inning,they can finish you off.”
Staff writer Troy E. Renck can be reached at 303-954-1301 or trenck@denverpost.com.
