National Republicans and Democrats have poured nearly $1 million into two Colorado congressional races in the past month.
The financial transfusion, at a time when Democrats need to pick up 15 seats to regain control of the House, indicates which races both parties think they can win – and which ones they aren’t sure about.
“Up until now, it’s been about assumptions in the House races and where the money goes. Now it’s a reality,” said Amy Walter, senior editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which analyzes the country’s congressional races. “Political triage starts now, … and both parties have a limited amount of money.”
The two parties make calculated decisions about which races they expect to get involved in and which races to leave alone. They also prepare for last- minute events, which may mean they divert money from a race that now looks hopeless to one that suddenly heats up.
In Colorado, the National Republican Campaign Committee has pumped $420,561 into advertising in an attempt to protect Marilyn Musgrave’s 4th Congressional District seat from a Democratic takeover, according to federal records compiled by politicalmoneyline.com. The Democrats, on the other hand, only got involved a few days ago and have spent $54,945 for mailings.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent $497,083 on mail and media buys aimed at helping Ed Perlmutter edge out Republican Rick O’Donnell for the open seat in the competitive 7th Congressional District. But Republicans have largely stayed on the sidelines, putting in $14,345 for phone banks and a survey.
Both are still on the sidelines, however, in the 5th Congressional District race between Republican Doug Lamborn and Democrat Jay Fawcett in District 5. Although the seat has been solidly Republican since it was created in 1972, a recent poll by The Denver Post showed the candidates tied with 37 percent each and 26 percent of voters undecided.
With four weeks of the campaign season remaining, neither party will disclose its strategy in that or any other district.
But Musgrave, who led Angie Paccione by 10 percentage points in a recent Denver Post poll, may be a safer bet for financial backing than O’Donnell, who trailed Perlmutter by 6 percentage points.
Especially when the Republican Party is now on the ropes, fighting to retain both its image and House seats in the wake of the scandal involving former U.S. Rep. Mark Foley, R-Fla.
“Musgrave’s race is tightening up, but Republicans must know it’s still theirs to lose,” said John Straayer, a political science professor at Colorado State University, pointing to the voter-registration numbers in the district: 40 percent Republican, 26 percent Democrat and 34 percent unaffiliated.
Additionally, a Democrat hasn’t held that seat since former U.S. Rep. Wayne Aspinall left office in 1973.
If Republicans keep up this financial pace for Musgrave, they will probably spend more than the $908,300 they shelled out two years ago to keep her seat.
At this time in 2004, Musgrave was running against Democrat Stan Matsunaka, and the NRCC hadn’t yet spent a dime. It wasn’t until the middle of October that the money started pouring in.
O’Donnell, on the other hand, is running for U.S. Rep. Bob Beauprez’s open seat in a district nearly evenly divided between Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters.
However, Democrats have slowly increased their registration numbers, giving them a slight edge.
“If Republicans think O’Donnell is likely to lose, they have to assess whether they can afford to spend money right now on a losing race. I would think the answer is ‘no,”‘ Straayer said.
Staff writer Karen Crummy can be reached at 303-954-1594 or kcrummy@denverpost.com.
