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We’re unaccustomed to being the messenger of good news when it comes to utility costs, but the stars may be lining up to reduce natural gas heating bills for Coloradans this winter.

Natural gas production has rebounded from 2005 Gulf Coast hurricane disruptions, and the increased supply has lowered prices.

As if that weren’t good enough, weather forecasters say the winter may be a mild one, so furnaces won’t kick on as often.

If the indicators hold, a typical Xcel Energy residential customer is expected to pay $135 for their December bill – $22 less than they paid last year.

Yet the relief probably won’t help the neediest among us. In fact, despite additional state financial help, low-income Colorado families seeking assistance still face bleak prospects.

That’s because in a soft economy, social service agencies are expecting more qualified applicants. And much of the $20 million in state money approved by legislators this year came with the caveat that it be spent on energy-saving improvements instead of bill assistance.

There’s another dynamic at work. The same bounty of natural gas that will reduce bills by 13 to 14 percent also means a decline in U.S. funding through the Low Income Energy Assistance Program (LEAP).

Last year, LEAP saw 11.5 percent more qualified applicants. This year, officials expect an additional 10 percent jump. Part of the reason for the increases can be attributed to steady growth in the state’s poverty rate.

Last winter, the LEAP program helped a record high 107,256 Colorado households, giving an average benefit of nearly $550. More than half of households receiving help were in the Denver metro area.

County LEAP offices will begin accepting applications Nov. 1, so the scope of the problem will begin to firm up then.

“Despite the natural gas price drops, it’s still going to be a very, very difficult year,” Herb Betts, a specialist with LEAP, told The Denver Post.

The turn of events is particularly unexpected because state legislators, acting on a request from Gov. Bill Owens, approved the $20 million for the assistance program. But its emphasis on energy-saving improvements, while laudable for long-term savings, won’t help struggling Coloradans make their monthly bills.

It’s a cold confluence of events that will reduce heating bills for the average Coloradan, but won’t make matters easier for many of those who need it most.

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