Pop quiz: What’s the most likely reason 10-1 Notre Dame, ranked fifth in the BCS rankings, will not play in the BCS title game Jan. 8?
A. It lost to No. 2 Michigan in Week 3, 47-21.
B. Notre Dame’s defense faces Southern California’s offense Saturday.
C. Through the first week in January, there is no forecast for snow in Hades.
D. All of the above.
Of course, the correct answer is D. But while Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis is doing his diplomatic best to make a case for his Irish without sounding foolish, his defense may be as big an issue as their one pratfall against Michigan.
Notre Dame’s defense was on the field so long at Air Force two weeks ago, the Irish offense wasn’t huddling to call plays but to keep warm. Air Force, despite losing 39-17, ran off 32 straight plays covering 128 yards and 15 minutes in two drives interrupted by a blocked field goal for a touchdown.
Purdue torched the Irish secondary for 398 passing yards. Penn State did the same for 225 and Michigan 220. There are 46 teams with higher-rated defenses than Notre Dame despite a schedule in which the Irish opponents’ combined record is only 64-60. Safety Tom Zbikowski has disappeared from all those preseason All-America lists.
“I’m pretty sure most secondaries give up passing touchdowns,” Zbikowski said. “Obviously, you want to eliminate those long plays and want to make them earn it but that’s part of the position. When you make a mistake, everyone sees it.”
At USC (9-1), Notre Dame faces an offense that has outscored its last three opponents 100-19 and that includes ranked teams Oregon and California. The Trojans, third in the BCS, feature two first-round draft picks in receivers Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett and are being told a win over Notre Dame and then 6-5 UCLA will leapfrog them over Michigan into the title game.
This is the biggest test of the year for Notre Dame’s defense, but don’t bury it just yet. This is also a much-improved defense, better than the one that lost to then top-ranked USC a year ago 34-31.
No, the opponents’ combined mark is modest but at season’s end, Notre Dame will look back at seven opponents who went to bowl games. And the only teams that gained more yards against Notre Dame than their season average were Penn State, Michigan State and Purdue. And Notre Dame beat Michigan State with two interceptions, including Terrail Lambert’s 27-yard touchdown return to win it, 40-37.
“We’ve definitely matured,” safety Chinedum Ndukwe said. “We started out pretty strong. Then, in the middle, we weren’t as aggressive, but we’re picking it up and Coach was saying we’re peaking at the right time.”
Ndukwe is an example of some of the Irish players starting to have an impact. Always known as a great hitter, he has also been increasingly productive. Against Air Force’s wishbone offense, he had 22 tackles, 15 solo. Although, he said, “On some of those plays, my professor could’ve made those tackles.”
Ndukwe has had a remarkable year with 82 tackles, two interceptions, five passes broken up and two forced fumbles.
“I could tell you that any time you have a team, there’s going to be holes in your team,” Weis said Tuesday during his weekly news conference. “But I really like this team.”
He must. He’s trying to sell it to voters who hold his destiny in their voting paws. The only way this Notre Dame team can pass Michigan is if it blows out USC so far into the Pacific that voters will think that trumps the Irish’s earlier loss. Then they must move Notre Dame from fifth in the Harris Poll and sixth in the USA Today coaches poll, two-thirds of the BCS formula, past Michigan into second.
Keep in mind USC has a Pacific 10-record 32-game home win streak and has lost two games out of its past 45.
Still, you can’t blame a coach for trying. The day after Notre Dame pounded Army 41-9 Saturday, Weis said, “We lost early in the year to Michigan. Does that mean that we might not with an impressive win over USC, which is going to be a tough test?
“It’s not going (to be) like we’re going to go out there and win by four touchdowns. It just doesn’t work that way. But with an impressive win over USC at the end of the year, could that do enough to do the trick, where you go in and beat the second-ranked team (in the polls)? Right now, that’s possible.”
True, it is but it will be up to the defense. But make the championship game? Check the forecast.
