Washington – Standing before two giant television screens and clutching a remote control in each hand, Tony Sardo grappled with a question that will confront millions of Americans this holiday shopping season.
For an hour, he toggled between two new types of video-disc players offering brilliant images. He questioned a sales associate and weighed the none-too-low prices of the players, known as Blu-ray Disc and HD-DVD. Finally, he did what many electronics customers are doing: He walked away without buying either.
“It’s too early to know which one to go with,” said Sardo, 28, after browsing at a Fairfax, Va., electronics store for a next-generation DVD player to go with his new 42-inch high-definition television.
“It’s like betting on which team will win the Super Bowl before preseason games start.”
The fight between Blu-ray and HD-DVD, reminiscent of the 1980s battle between Betamax and VHS tape formats, isn’t just vexing consumers like Sardo. It’s shaping up as a business disaster for movie studios, electronics companies and retailers that had counted on a robust holiday selling season for the fancy new players – which cost $500 to $1,000 – and movies to play in them.
Technology companies have divided into two warring camps, each backing one of the formats. Attempts to come up with a single format collapsed last year, so the two sides decided to duke it out in the marketplace. As they do, consumers are mostly staying on the sidelines, causing sales to fall far short of initial projections.
A winner could still emerge, but experts say it’s just as likely that consumers, fearful of buying an expensive player that will turn out to be worthless, will just say no to high-definition discs. In the best case, analysts predict, the format war will go on for another year or so before a clear winner emerges, delaying an industry switchover to the improved discs.
“By and large, it’s going to result in the season where no one buys anything,” said Gartner research director Van Baker.
“Manufacturers have put an awful lot of investment into these players, and they’re not going to see a return on that anytime soon.”
In January, the Consumer Electronics Association predicted that more than 600,000 high-definition DVD players, worth $484 million, would be sold this year. Shipment delays and production problems have twice caused the organization to lower its forecast, and it now expects U.S. sales to reach only 200,000 players, worth $181 million, by the end of the year.
Those numbers don’t include sales of video-game consoles, which manufacturers hope will give the new formats a boost. Sony’s PlayStation 3, released last week, doubles as a Blu-ray player, and Microsoft’s Xbox 360, released last year, can play HD-DVDs with an accessory component.
