Jerusalem – Israel’s options for stopping Hamas rocket fire run from bad to worse.
Israel can halt the barrage on its border towns only if it reoccupies Gaza for good, military experts concluded after two weeks of lopsided fighting between Israel’s high-tech military and a few thousand Islamic militants armed with crude scrap-metal projectiles.
However, a bloody invasion comes with many risks, including the possible collapse of the Palestinian Authority, and sabotages Israel’s goal of separation from the Palestinians, which began with its 2005 pullout from the coastal strip.
Israel’s leaders are also gun-shy after last summer’s hasty – many say botched – war against Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon.
Yet if Israel doesn’t take dramatic action, weapons will probably continue to reach Hamas through smuggling tunnels under the Egypt-Gaza border.
A diplomatic solution also seems far off. Israel won’t negotiate with Hamas, and moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas appears powerless to rein in the militants.
Hamas, meanwhile, stands to benefit more than it loses from almost any scenario.
Stepped-up rocket attacks on Israel have helped Hamas to regain some of the popular support it lost in months of internal fighting with Abbas’ Fatah movement.
If Hamas halts fire now and negotiates a new truce with Israel – the previous one lasted for five months – it can buy time to beef up its fighting strength and recover from the current round.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has resisted growing pressure for a new military offensive, instead offering the public a dose of sober realism.
“We don’t want to create unrealistic expectations that it’s possible to stop the (rockets) totally,” he told his Cabinet on Sunday.
The Cabinet has approved a plan of gradual acceleration, including strikes on Hamas militants, followed by possible hits against its political leaders, the reoccupation of Gaza’s edges to push back rocket launchers and – as a last resort – a ground offensive, security officials said.
“Israel is trapped from all sides. Any move will end with a barrage of rockets” on the border town of Sderot, said Alon Ben-David, military commentator for Israel TV’s Channel 10.
