BAGHDAD — The second half of 2007 saw violence drop drastically in Iraq, but the progress came at a high price: The year was the deadliest for the U.S. military since the 2003 invasion, with 899 troops killed.
American commanders and diplomats, however, say the battlefield gains against insurgents such as al-Qaeda in Iraq offer only a partial picture of where the country stands as the war moves toward its five-year mark in March.
Two crucial shifts that boosted U.S.-led forces in 2007 — a self-imposed cease-fire by a leading Shiite militia and a grassroots Sunni revolt against extremists — could still unravel unless serious unity efforts are made by Iraq’s government.
Iran also remains a major wild card. U.S. officials believe the neighboring country has helped quiet Iraq by reducing its flow of aid to Shiite fighters, including materials needed for deadly roadside bombs. But Iran’s apparent hands-off policies could come under strain as Shiite factions — some favoring Iran, others not — battle for control of Iraq’s oil-rich south.
The Pentagon, meanwhile, will increasingly look to the uneven Iraqi security forces to carry the load in 2008 as demands for an American exit strategy grow sharper during the U.S. election year.
Britain, the main U.S. coalition partner in Iraq, is gradually drawing down its forces, and other allies, including Poland and Australia, are contemplating full-scale withdrawals in the coming year.
The arc of progress played out in the raw statistics of U.S.and Iraqi casualties.
American military deaths peaked in May with 126 troops killed. It was then that the U.S. began ramping up its attacks against insurgent strongholds, leading to increased clashes in Baghdad and other key areas across central Iraq.
Seven months on, commanders and analysts say America’s aggressive strategy of targeting al-Qaeda in Iraq strongholds is paying off: U.S. casualties have dropped sharply. As of Sunday night in Baghdad, 21 deaths had been reported in December, one more than in February 2004, which was the lowest monthly total of the war.
The 899 deaths in 2007 surpassed the previously highest death toll, in 2004, when 850 U.S. soldiers were killed. The total for 2007 could rise slightly; occasionally, the military reports casualties a few days after they occur. The military reported the noncombat-related death of a soldier Sunday.
At least 3,902 members of the U.S. military have died since the beginning of the war. Of those, at least 3,175 died as a result of hostile action, according to the military’s numbers.
Iraqi civilian deaths have tracked that decline, and overall violence across the country is down roughly 60 percent, American commanders say.
