WASHINGTON — President Bush, who once had grand ambitions to transform the Middle East through democratic reform, begins his first extended presidential visit to the region Tuesday with his sights lowered and his ability to influence events fading fast.
From the Israeli prime minister’s modest house in Jerusalem to the palace of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, Bush can expect a polite welcome during the nine-day trip. But with the U.S. presidential campaign underway, governments in the region already appear to be looking past Bush to his successor. They’re expecting no major breakthroughs.
The official Arab view of Bush was summed up inadvertently by a diplomat from a major Arab state, who indicated disbelief that the president will use the trip to renew his drive for Middle East democracy.
“Is that still on?” the Arab official replied sarcastically. He spoke on condition of anonymity because of diplomatic sensitivities.
Political liberalization in the Middle East has been in the deep freeze since the militant Islamist group Hamas’ January 2006 victory in Palestinian parliamentary elections.
And Bush’s new drive for Arab-Israeli peace, launched six weeks ago at an international conference in Annapolis, Md., is already flagging.
Even on Iran, where the United States, Israel and Persian Gulf nations share alarm, there’s confusion following a U.S. National Intelligence Estimate in November that reversed an earlier estimate and concluded that Iran abandoned a covert nuclear-weapons program more than three years ago.
“The Bush administration has been mugged by reality. After vowing to transform the Middle East, the administration is submitting to it,” said Jon Alterman of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, a center-right policy organization.
