CHICAGO — Railway executive Matthew Rose stood before fellow industry leaders, pointing to a map meant to tell the future of the U.S. rail freight network. It was drenched in red — east to west, north to south.
The blotches illustrated areas where, by 2035, traffic jams could be so severe that trains would grind to a halt for days with nowhere to go.
“For those of you who’ve ever seen a good rail meltdown, this is what it looks like,” Rose, chief executive of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp., said as the crowded hall shifted uncomfortably in their chairs. “It’s literally chaos in the supply chain.”
While the nation’s attention is focused on air-travel congestion and the high cost of fuel for highway driving, a crisis is developing under the radar for another form of transportation — the freight trains used to deliver many of the goods that keep the U.S. economy humming.
The nation’s 140,000-mile network of rails devoted to carrying everything from cars to grain is already groaning under the strain of congestion, with trains forced to stand aside for hours because of one-track rail lines.
And it’s probably going to get worse over the next two decades, according to an analysis of government and industry projections by The Associated Press and interviews with experts on rail freight.
The damage to the U.S. economy could climb into the billions of dollars. Higher shipping costs would raise prices for everything from lumber to grain. One analyst said the rail crunch could add thousands of dollars to the price of a car.
“It’s not rocket science to see we have a calamity coming down the road,” said Paul Bingham, a transportation analyst at research firm Global Insight.
Congestion around the country has remained chronic, even as the ailing economy has led to a 3 percent dip in freight-train traffic in the first few months of this year compared with last year. And a new U.S. Chamber of Commerce report warns demand for freight trains is expected to double over the next 25 years.
Other modes of transport can’t take up the slack: Trucking faces its own congestion problems, a shortage of drivers and high fuel prices. Ships and barges can’t reach large parts of the country. Airplanes couldn’t begin to carry the millions of tons of coal, waste, chemicals, grain and cars hauled by trains.
Some facts about the U.S. rail freight system:
• The first North American railroad was chartered by Baltimore merchants in 1827. The golden age of railroads began around 1865, with about 35,000 miles of track. It peaked in 1916 at 250,000 miles.
• As the trucking industry boomed in the 1950s, there was a rash of bankruptcies in the railway industry, lasting into the 1970s. Deregulation in the 1980s forced scores of mergers and helped bring the industry back.
• Today, trains move more than 2 billion tons of freight a year on 140,000 miles of track, nearly all of it privately owned.
• Coal accounts for more than 40 percent of all train freight.
• In 1929, the average freight train had around 50 cars, with about 800 tons of freight. Trains now are far more efficient. An average train has about 70 cars and carries more than 3,000 tons.
• Nine companies account for more than 90 percent of all North American railway revenue, or more than $50 billion. The five largest are Union Pacific Railroad, BNSF Railway, Norfolk Southern, CSX Transportation and Canadian National Railway.
Sources: Federal agencies, Association of American Railroads.
