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The early money is on Obama. Bettors snapping up “futures” on the political campaign give the Illinois senator nearly 1-to-2 odds of beating Republican John McCain.
Traders on the betting site Intrade are putting Obama’s chances of winning the presidency at 63 percent. Contracts for an Obama victory are trading at 63.4, meaning a bet of $6.34 would pay $10. McCain futures are being offered at 35.
The Iowa Electronic Markets at the University of Iowa, the granddaddy of political futures trading, comes up with similar results. Bettors there give the Democratic candidate a 61 percent chance of winning the popular vote. Such markets have been more accurate than polls in past elections.
