The Rockies have gone from playing meaningful games in October to trying to find the meaning of their baseball lives this season.
They have been awful, great, healthy and hurt, disappointing and intriguing, but for now their recent hot streak has dramatically decreased the likelihood that outfielder Matt Holliday will be traded next month, according to general manager Dan O’Dowd.
Holliday won’t be a free agent until after next season, so there’s no urgency to resolve his future, although chances of re-signing him to a long-term contract haven’t improved since brief talks in spring training.
Big deals involving superstars are complicated by a confluence of factors: the sheer mechanics of the trade, the unpopularity with the fan base and the real possibility that a good match can’t be found with teams so tightly gripping young players, the most valuable currency in today’s game.
Cleveland Indians pitcher C.C. Sabathia and Seattle starter Erik Bedard are available, leaving those teams to face a chilling question that is currently thawing in Colorado: What can you get for a superstar? And, how do you negotiate a fair trade when it’s clear you can’t afford your star?
“You are never going to receive in return what the public thinks you should when you are talking about players of that caliber,” said Oakland A’s GM Billy Beane, who has traded many stars, including pitchers Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. “When word gets out that you might be moving a guy, that creates expectations that are far beyond reality. Ultimately, you have to realize there will be a PR fallout. But what you are trying to do is put a deal together that will be written in future papers, not the one the next day.”
A year ago, the Rangers faced a similar situation with slugging first baseman Mark Teixeira. They were performing below expectations and, despite Teixeira’s clear impact, needed to determine whether to go forward with or without their star. They went through a detailed process, covering four specific scenarios, said assistant GM Thad Levine.
They could trade him at the deadline, giving the acquiring team two potential playoff runs with the slugger. They could move him during the winter, which they feared would decrease what they got in return. They could keep him until this season, getting his production for another calendar year, but effectively eliminating their leverage. Or they could just let him sign elsewhere and take compensatory draft picks.
Tight trade parameters
After Teixeira turned down a seven-year, $140 million offer last summer, the Rangers made it known that the first baseman was available. Their demands were rigid — they wanted multiple young players to replenish their farm system.
“And nobody could be off limits,” Levine said. “That quickly narrowed the list from 29 teams to four or five. We weren’t going to take anything less than 95 percent of what we were asking for because we didn’t have to move him at that time and the salary wasn’t a mitigating factor.”
Teixeira was dealt to Atlanta, the result of planets aligning. Atlanta GM John Schuerholz was retiring at season’s end, possessed a deep minor-league talent pool, including a big-league-ready catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and a belief his team could win the World Series in his last year with the help of Teixeira.
Teixeira remains a hit in Atlanta, but the Braves haven’t been any better with him. They were 65-65 entering the weekend since the deal, same as the Rangers, and missed the playoffs last year. And there’s no guarantee they will be able to re-sign Teixeira this offseason.
Where Colorado’s situation with Holliday differs dramatically is in its demands.
“I think you focus on quantity, not quality in any trade, not just Matt — a really good player and a second player that adds value. I don’t think you are going to see those kind of deals where the other organization feels exploited,” O’Dowd said. “And at the trading deadline, you can feel the pressure that you have to get something done. That makes it difficult. The offseason has a little bit of a symmetry to it.”
Even those are dangerous times to deal, with the Detroit Tigers as exhibit A. They cleared their cupboard to land Florida’s Miguel Cabrera and pitcher Dontrelle Willis last winter. Cabrera has already shifted positions and Willis is a mechanical mess. Detroit shipped out 23-year- old pitcher Andrew Miller, who has outperformed Willis, and center fielder Cameron Maybin, one of baseball’s prized young minor-leaguers.
Some, however, work.
A’s, Arizona perfect fit
The Athletics and Diamondbacks pulled off an eight-player offseason deal with pitcher Dan Haren and Arizona minor-leaguers Dana Eveland, Greg Smith and Carlos Gonzalez at the epicenter. All have contributed to their team’s success this year.
“It was a perfect storm,” Beane said of matching needs for both teams.
The jury remains out on the Mets’ acquisition of superstar pitcher Johan Santana during the winter, not only to determine if the young players the Twins acquired will make an impact but whether Santana can live up to his $137.5 million contract.
For every cautionary tale, there’s a buyer needing a fix. That will leave plenty of suitors for Sabathia.
“Of course, I know that it’s out there and could happen,” Sabathia said.
Bedard and possibly Holliday, if the Rockies fall out of contention, are others who could be moved.
The Rockies remain knee-deep in the National League West race. And if they can crawl to within five or six games of first place by the all-star break, they will stand pat.
“If we are anywhere near where we were last year at that time (5 1/2 games out), it gives us an opportunity to stay patient and let this thing continue to unfold,” O’Dowd said.
Should the Rockies slump and look to move Holliday, there’s likely a long list of teams that will show interest.
“As long as the acquiring team thinks the player will greatly impact them, they will still do it,” Padres GM Kevin Towers said. “Look at the impact (Mark) McGwire had on the Cardinals in the ’90s.”
More than ever, however, GMs are reluctant to part with young players ready for the major leagues. They provide cheap, productive labor and a layer of protection with ownership when a GM can sell the boss on a youth movement.
“Teams don’t want to lose their young players, so a lot of things have to come together to make these deals happen,” Beane said. “You have to find the GM that has the guts to trade a (star) player.”
Troy E. Renck: 303-954-1301 or trenck@denverpost.com
Matt Holliay
Off the trading block, for now, as Rockies creep back into contention
With Colorado back on the fringe of contending in the National League West, general manager Dan O’Dowd has told inquiring teams that he has no interest in trading Matt Holliday. “I don’t think from a value standpoint that it’s going to be dramatically different in July than it’s going to be in December,” O’Dowd said. What happens in the next month will influence whether the team’s position changes.
Trading spaces
As the all-star break approaches, teams determine whether they are buyers or sellers on the trade market. For now, the Rockies are telling everyone that all-star outfielder Matt Holliday is not on the block. That could change if the team goes into a tailspin. Trading a superstar is not easy. National baseball writer Troy E. Renck looks at recent examples of players dealt, or in the case of Cleveland ace C.C. Sabathia, the biggest name who could be traded this summer:
C.C. Sabathia, LHP
Scenario: Indians pitcher is in the final year of his contract before becoming a free agent, making him the biggest trading chip on this year’s market.
Decision: The Indians are slumping and have told teams Sabathia is available. General manager Mark Shapiro is open to calls, but it’s unclear yet if he wants quality or quantity in return.
Outcome: Sabathia’s desire not to negotiate a new contract during the season likely means he’ll be sent to a big-market team in July, with the Red Sox and Cubs the early front-runners.
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Scenario: He was in a similar position to Matt Holliday last summer, a year and a half away from free agency. He turned down a seven-year, $140 million offer from the Rangers.
Decision: Texas gave up on signing Teixeira to a long-term deal, made him available and held firm to its demand for multiple frontline prospects.
Outcome: Shipped Teixeira and reliever Ron Mahay to Atlanta on July 30 for catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, shortstop Elvis Andrus and pitchers Beau Jones, Matt Harrison and Neftalia Feliz.
Fallout: Braves failed to make playoffs and were 65-65 entering the weekend since acquiring Teixeira. Rangers owned identical 65-65 record entering weekend without him.
Johan Santana, LHP
Scenario: Was entering the final year of his contract last winter as a Minnesota Twin. He wanted a long-term contract extension or indicated he would walk away as a free agent.
Decision: Unable to meet Santana’s demands, the Twins played poker for months, trying to get the most chips. They overplayed their hand and ended up taking the third-best deal among the offers from the Red Sox, Yankees and Mets.
Outcome: Twins dealt Santana to Mets for center fielder Carlos Gomez, 22, who took over in center field, and pitching prospects Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra.
Fallout: Mets fired their manager last week. Santana and the team have stumbled out of the blocks. He’s 7-5 with a 3.04 ERA. Minnesota signed free agent Livan Hernandez as its No. 1 pitcher, and he has seven wins.
