Major news flash from Dove Valley: Jay Cutler says he has a good feel for the Broncos’ offense. Not only that, he sounds good and looks good. And, may I add, the defense is looking good. Oh, and that new kicker . . . whoa, he’s, like, looking really good.
It’s August and it’s all good at the Valley of the Dove. Except it’s not.
Can I get a reality check from the congregation?
They’re talking the talk and feeling the love at Broncos headquarters. How much so? When Wade Phillips brought the Cowboys to town, he could have sworn he was deep in the heart of Metroplex traffic.
“They’ve got a tremendous organization,” Phillips said. “It’s like Dallas. The fans are tremendously behind the team. They’ve got high expectations every year. I mean, I listened here earlier and they’re talking about the Super Bowl. Guys are coming in here talking about the Super Bowl. A lot of other places aren’t like that.”
Trouble is, a lot of other places are. New England, for instance. Indianapolis. San Diego. They ought to be talking Super Bowl in those cities. Denver? After seeing the Broncos of 2006-07, I’d settle for an occasional red-zone touchdown or an opposing quarterback on the ground.
Hold the Kool-Aid already. Yes, Cutler appears primed to enter a new realm. Yes, Jim Bates, who was supposed to have all the answers, is gone. And yes, two of the other three teams in the AFC West are imminently beatable. Not only that, in the words of Pat Bowlen, “There’s a new energy in the building.”
Uh-huh. And there also are several starters back on a defense that allowed 409 points, more than any other AFC team that didn’t lose 15 games. Afterward, Mike Shanahan hired his third defensive coordinator in three years. Just to put that number in perspective, the Monfort Bros., at the rate they’re going, will own the Rockies for 40 years and never have three general managers.
The 2007 Broncos needed four last-second field goals from Jason Elam to finish 7-9. The Browns, meanwhile, were 10-6. So why mention it here? Because those 10 wins didn’t get Cleveland a playoff berth in the big, bad AFC. But the Broncos will earn one this year because, well, because they’re the Broncos. And because the food is good in the cafeteria at Dove Valley.
Granted, in today’s NFL, you can’t get too caught up in last season. In the past decade, an average of six teams have made the playoffs after not getting there the previous season. The Buccaneers won the NFC South after finishing 4-12 in 2006. Washington snagged a wild card after a 5-11 ’06 season.
Maybe the Broncos will be one of those teams. But there are a lot of reasons to think they won’t be, to think that Shanahan could establish a career first: missing the playoffs for three straight years. Inexperience, for one thing. One very big thing.
A perusal of the Broncos’ roster indicates that 67 of the 80 players in training camp have played two or fewer seasons in Denver. That’s commonly known as a youth movement, not a playoff team waiting to happen.
Unlike the Chargers, whose roster is littered with prime-time talents at or near the prime of their careers, the Broncos are lacking a core of such players. And it’s easy enough to see why. There are two players — D.J. Williams and Ben Hamilton — remaining from the five draft classes of 2000-04.
You have to like what the Broncos have done since then. Their draft class of ’06, the one that included Cutler, Tony Scheffler, Brandon Marshall and Elvis Dumervil, may prove to be the greatest in franchise history. But they’re not ready to make the playoffs. Not here, not now, not in the AFC.
John Elway missed the playoffs six times in his first 13 seasons, during which the AFC generally was inferior to the NFC. And Cutler, surrounded by all those young players, is going to make the playoffs now that the tide has turned, now that the AFC is the powerhouse conference? No. It doesn’t just take talent. It takes time.
To paraphrase that slogan on Terrell Owens’ T-shirt, I love me some reality. And reality suggests in no uncertain terms that the Broncos are a work in progress, not a threat to upset the Patriots or Colts in the playoffs. Maybe next year, but not this year.
But hey, don’t take my word for it. I’ve been known to be dead-on about these kinds of things, and I’ve been known to be dead wrong. We’ll know soon enough, starting with the season opener at Oakland, sans Marshall.
One week later, we’ll have an even clearer view. That’s when the Chargers come calling at Invesco Field at Mile High. The score the last time these two hooked up along I-25? Try San Diego 41, Elam 3.
Wondering how much the Chargers respect the Broncos? We take you to San Diego, where Philip Rivers last was seen taunting Cutler from the sideline. A quarterback talking trash. Not a wide receiver punking a cornerback. A quarterback, for crying out loud, dissing another quarterback.
Forget all the speculation, all the optimism, all the feel-good talk. If the Chargers come into Invesco and win again, we’ll know all we need to know. And if the Broncos win at Oakland, then beat the Chargers? Same thing. We’ll know all we need to know.
Jim Armstrong: 303-954-1269 or jmarmstrong@denverpost.com
