TEHRAN — After an exuberant campaign season, voters across this country of 70 million head to the polls today in a fiercely contested presidential election with potentially broad domestic and international repercussions.
Washington and capitals around the world are tensely anticipating the outcome of the Iranian vote, which pits incumbent Mahmoud Ahmad inejad against reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi and two other challengers.
The Islamic Republic and the West are at odds over Iran’s nuclear program and support for militant groups that oppose Israel. Pro-American Arab leaders have decried Iran’s rising ambitions.
The next president, analysts say, will play a key role in formulating Iran’s response to the Obama administration’s offer of comprehensive talks after a 30-year cold war between Tehran and Washington.
“There’s a hope that if Ahmadinejad is not re-elected this might facilitate engagement with Iran, specifically on the nuclear issue,” said Ali Reza Nader, an analyst at the Rand Corp. “Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric and style has an effect on U.S.-Iran engagement. Mousavi is seen as an easier candidate to deal with by certain segments of the (U.S.) foreign-policy establishment.”
For Iranian voters, the election has emerged as a referendum on Ahmadinejad, pitting those who support his populist economic policies and fiery international posture against those angered by his conservative social policies and his perceived damaging of Iran’s relations with the West.
Polling numbers are scarce and unreliable. No independent pollsters operate in Iran. Ahmadinejad supporters say he’ll easily clobber Mousavi, his chief challenger in today’s balloting. Mousavi’s supporters say their polls show Ahmadinejad will lose by a double-digit margin. Neither group details sample sizes or margins of error.
Results will largely hinge on turnout among eligible voters, estimated at 46.2 million. The more people who vote, the better Mousavi’s chances, analysts say. The poor and pious and rural voters who favor Ahmadinejad for his populist giveaways and low-interest loan policies tend to dutifully wait in long lines at the polls. The young, educated middle-class urbanites who oppose Ahmadinejad tend to stay home or get discouraged by the slow process.
Election officials are planning for a record turnout, placing ballot boxes in 130 countries, including Iraq and the United States.
Results are supposed to be announced within 24 hours after polls close.
