With the economy and his numbers down, Matt Holliday’s big free- agent gamble is beginning to look like a mistake.
You never know—one of the usual big spenders could still shower Holliday with mad money this winter, but his performance so far in Oakland makes it just as likely, maybe more likely, that no one will offer him as much as he turned down from the Rockies in the spring of 2008.
In just one of the ironic twists here, Holliday told The Post the other day that he would consider a free-agent bid from the Rockies, remembering the good times he had here.
This made more dubious the belated claim that he had turned down the Rockies’ offer last year because he was uncertain of the organization’s commitment to winning. Neither ownership nor upper management has changed over the past year.
Another irony is that the Rockies probably wouldn’t repeat the offer Holliday turned down. Sixteen months ago, coming off a World Series appearance and Holliday’s monster 2007 numbers, spending one quarter of the payroll on a single player didn’t seem completely nuts.
So, the Rockies offered Holliday $18 million a year for four years with a $12 million player option for a fifth. Holliday turned it down on the grounds that he could get a longer package on the open market.
Sure enough, slugger Mark Teixeira collected an eight- year, $180 million deal from the Yankees last winter, suggesting Holliday’s calculation, or agent Scott Boras’, was correct.
But Teixeira, like Holliday a year earlier, was coming off a big year, including a sensational second-half stint with the Angels, in which he batted .358 and drove in 43 runs in 54 games.
Holliday’s modest numbers so far this season would not seem to justify a nine-figure offer. Granted, a slow start dragged those numbers down, but with only eight home runs near the end of June, it’s going to take quite a blitz to regain his reputation as one of the game’s leading power hitters.
Within baseball, Holliday’s numbers this year confirm the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum’s reputation as a pitcher’s ballpark. For many, they also confirm Holliday’s previous numbers were inflated by Coors Field.
All of which gives him reason to hope the A’s trade him before the July 31 deadline to a team with a hitter-friendly ballpark that will give him a chance to boost his numbers in time for free agency.
But there is no guarantee the A’s will trade him. General manager Billy Beane would presumably be looking to replace the prospects he shipped to Colorado. He’s guaranteed two high draft picks in compensation if Holliday leaves as a free agent at season’s end, which might amount to the same thing.
For Beane, the whole point of the Holliday trade was to provide enough offensive support so that a promising young pitching staff wasn’t afraid to throw strikes. Even with him, the A’s offense has been anemic. Without him, the young starters might need 24-hour psychiatric care.
Meanwhile, the Rockies still haven’t really filled the hole in left field. Ryan Spilborghs, Seth Smith and Carlos Gonzalez have spent time there. Gonzalez, obtained in the Holliday trade, has the highest ceiling but the lowest batting average.
As nicely as Holliday would fit in his old spot, the Rockies’ priority between now and July 31 is not hitting. General manager Dan O’Dowd is looking for a starting pitcher and bullpen reinforcements. It is unlikely he would trade any significant assets without getting pitching in return.
Earlier this month, ESPN’s Buster Olney estimated that with a big year, Holliday might have attracted a free- agent offer of as much as $100 million or so over six years. Based on his current numbers, Olney suggested Holliday might be offered no more than three years at $30-something million.
Boston, once seen as a possible destination, now seems more likely to re-sign Jason Bay, who has driven in nearly twice as many runs as Holliday this year.
Of course, there are always the Yankees. With Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui getting on, the aptly named Brian Cashman could shower yet another slugger with big bucks and prove Boras right yet again.
Otherwise, this may turn out to be one of those deals where nobody ends up with what they wanted.
Dave Krieger: 303-954-5297 or dkrieger@denverpost.com
