The Rockies have the best record in baseball since June 4. Their pitching staff has lowered its ERA by more than a run over the last six weeks. And their offense remains lethal, despite featuring a lineup with five regulars hitting less than .260.
Critics widely interpret the Rockies as a pedestrian team that has gotten crazy hot. The Rockies digest their statistics and are convinced they haven’t played their best baseball yet.
“There’s more to come. I honestly believe that,” said Rockies manager Jim Tracy.
It’s hard to question the unshakable faith in his team given how it has responded to his leadership. The Rockies went from a SuperFund site to a staycation destination almost overnight.
At first, there were fluky signs. The Rockies handed the St. Louis Cardinals arguably their worst four-game home beatdown ever. But that became part of an 11-game win streak. Even after the run ended, the cold-blooded execution did not. The strongest evidence the Rockies are here to stay in the National League wild-card hunt? They are 9-7 since the run.
“I have been on a playoff team,” closer Huston Street said, “and I really believe we have the pieces in place to make it.”
As it stands, the Rockies sit three games behind the San Francisco Giants in the wild-card standings. They play the Giants 13 times in the second half (seven home, six road), which could ultimately determine how this season is viewed.
Nobody appears equipped to run away and hide. Here is what must go right for the Rockies to keep pace and ultimately bathe in champagne.
Scary Jason times two
Even the hockey-masked fellow in “Friday the 13th” hasn’t been as scary as the Rockies’ Jasons. Jason Marquis is an all-star. Jason Hammel is a wonderful discovery. The question is whether they can continue to gain force. Marquis must buck an ugly history. He is 60-38 in the first half, 30-37 after the break. Hammel has already reached a career high in innings pitched.
“My delivery is better. It’s allowing me to do things I have never done,” Marquis said of why he expects to avoid a second-half slump. “I have better depth to my sinker, my slider is back and I feel so much stronger as the game goes on.”
Hammel traces his success to improved fastball command. That shouldn’t dis-appear just because the calendar flips.
“I am a completely different pitcher now,” Hammel said. “Everything is off my fastball (rather than the slider). That has opened up my breaking pitches.”
If either falters, the Rockies will be in danger of falling short.
Real need for more relief
The bullpen has been brilliant since May 1, anchored by a steady closer in Street. But can Tracy continue his precise chess-piece maneuvers without a true setup man? As it stands, Juan Rincon, Joel Peralta and Matt Daley are mixing and matching to get the ball to Street.
“But you’re forgetting that we should soon have a healthy (Manuel) Corpas back (Thursday),” Street said.
Given the strength of the Giants’ bullpen, the Rockies can’t afford to give away more than a few late-inning leads without being severely punished in the standings.
Time to get offensive
The Rockies weren’t supposed to be better without Matt Holliday. But Brad Hawpe has replaced his production and the Rockies have done a remarkable job of delivering loud at-bats. They rank second in the National League in extra-base hits, blending power and athleticism. But they still show shades of boom-and-bust baseball as their .256 batting average, which ranks 20th in the majors, attests.
It’s hard to see this team realizing its postseason dreams without more consistent contact from Dexter Fowler, Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta and Carlos Gonzalez, or whoever ends up manning left field.
Tulo could be trigger
Good teams have great stories: guys who come out of nowhere — see Daley and Peralta — and others who expand before your eyes (Hawpe, Marquis, Clint Barmes). But if 2007 taught us anything, it’s that one player needs to go nuclear.
For that Rockies club, it was Holliday. There’s a sneaking suspicion Tulowitzki could be that guy this year. He has 10 home runs since June 8. He’s on pace to hit 26. As Tulo goes, so go the Rockies. If he reaches 25 homers with Gold Glove defense, this team reaches the playoffs.
“I definitely feel better at the plate than I did earlier in the season,” Tulowitzki said. “But I am not focused on numbers. I am focused on doing everything I can to help us win. I definitely think we are a playoff team.”
Troy E. Renck: 303-954-1301 or trenck@denverpost.com
Starting pitching
The first half of the Rockies’ 2009 season can be divided in two. The first part, under former manager Clint Hurdle, was marred by inconsistent pitching, poor clutch hitting and an ugly stretch out of the gate when the Rockies were 0-8 in one-run games. When Hurdle was fired, the Rockies were 18-28. The second part, under manager Jim Tracy, has been marked by terrific starting pitching, timely hits and an ability to win close games. The Rockies are 28-13 since Tracy took over May 29. Here’s a breakdown of the season, as well as a look ahead (statistics through Friday):
37-28, 4.02 ERA
The right stuff: Led by all-star Jason Marquis (11 wins), right, the rotation has been outstanding over the last six weeks, consistently pitching into the seventh and eighth innings. The team’s five main pitchers have averaged six innings per start.
Wrong turns: A bad inning or two still plagues Ubaldo Jimenez (6-9, 3.81 ERA). Aaron Cook has been stung lately because his two-seam fastball has been floating instead of sinking. Jorge De La Rosa has been good of late, but his track record suggests a meltdown is an inning away.
What’s next: If Jimenez puts it all together, he can dominate in the second half. Jason Hammel (5-4, 4.07) has been a nice surprise, but remains an unknown quantity for a full season. History suggests Marquis will cool off as the weather heats up. Coming into this season, his career record July-September is 34-40. Marquis, however, says no slump is coming.
Relief pitching
9-12, 4.92 ERA, 24 saves, eight blown saves, 38 holds
What’s gone right: After a rugged spring and a so-so start, Huston Street has emerged as a slam-the-door closer, saving 22 games in 23 attempts. Tracy has juggled his late-inning relievers effectively. Joel Peralta is a nice surprise.
Wrong turns: Premier setup man Taylor Buchholz (Tommy John surgery) has missed the entire season and Manuel Corpas has been hot and cold in Buchholz’s place. Friday night, veteran lefty Alan Embree fractured his leg on a line drive and is gone for the season. The bullpen’s cumulative 4.92 ERA is a scary number.
What’s next: General manager Dan O’Dowd is searching for a power arm but might not find one before the trade deadline. Corpas (bone chip, elbow) needs to stay healthy and pitch more consistently. Lefty Franklin Morales has the firepower to help as a late-inning arm, but relieving is a new role for him. As the Rockies head into the all-star break, their shaky bullpen needs some propping up.
Offense
.258 average (ninth in the NL), 431 runs (third), 99 home runs (tied for second)
What’s gone right: By hook or crook, timely hits or sacrifice flies, the Rockies have been able to score runs at home and on the road. Brad Hawpe, above (.322 average, 13 homers and 57 RBIs), Todd Helton (.315, 10, 57) and Clint Barmes (.284, 10, 44) have been stellar. Rookie Dexter Fowler’s .350 on-base percentage and 19 steals are encouraging. Seth Smith has been baseball’s best pinch hitter.
Wrong turns: The low averages of Ian Stewart (.220), Chris Iannetta (.237), Garrett Atkins (.227) and Carlos Gonzalez (.205) have been hugely disappointing. The Rockies’ .263 average with runners in scoring position has risen steadily, but it must get better. Fowler and Gonzalez strike out far too often. Fowler has whiffed in 26.7 percent of his at-bats, Gonzalez in 28.9 percent.
What’s next: There are encouraging signs, especially from Troy Tulowitzki (.305, seven homers in June). Tracy continues to predict the Rockies’ offense will blossom during the second half. If it does, the Rockies will be in the hunt.
Defense
.984 fielding percentage (eighth in NL)
What’s gone right: The speedy outfield duo of Fowler and Gonzalez has shrunk Coors Field’s wide-open spaces. Tulowitzki, right, should be considered for a Gold Glove at shortstop, and he and Barmes combine for an excellent double-play combo.
Wrong turns: Early on, fielding off the mound was terrible, but it’s gotten much better. Though catchers Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba and Paul Phillips are good receivers, they have not been adept at throwing out base-stealers. At one point, base thieves swiped 25 straight before getting thrown out.
What’s next: The Rockies’ defense was peaking just before the break, with outfield assists and sparkling double plays becoming the norm. With so many groundball pitchers, the defense stays alert and active. After a rough start, the defense is playing like the unit that led the Rockies to the 2007 pennant.
