Spread: Chargers by 7
Hash marks: Jets RB Thomas Jones had six 100-yard rushing games this season to go with a 200-yard rushing game, yet was not voted to the Pro Bowl by his peers. . . . The Jets won their last three road games of the regular season to go with their win in Cincinnati in the wild-card round last weekend. . . . Chargers coach Norv Turner is 4-3 in playoff games.
The Jets win if: They can once again beat the odds and advance with a rookie QB. They effectively took the ball out of Mark Sanchez’s hands last weekend when he threw just 15 passes in the win over the Bengals. The Jets will try to pound away at the Chargers’ run defense — 20th in the league — to try to follow that formula again.
The Chargers win if: They have kept their mojo during the bye week. No team in the league has shown more closing power in the regular season than San Diego. The Chargers won their last 11 games this season, won their last four in 2008, won their last six in 2007 and won their last 10 in 2006 — but they have yet to transfer any of that into a Super Bowl trip.
Jets player on the spot: The Jets led the league in total defense and pass defense, and cornerback Darrelle Revis is the linchpin of those efforts. But that means Lito Sheppard, who starts on the defensive right, figures to get plenty of action. Philip Rivers challenges top corners like Revis and Champ Bailey more than most QBs, but in such a big game Sheppard will have to hold up his end of the bargain.
Chargers player on the spot: They’re in it together, but the Chargers’ offensive linemen have to do something with the Jets’ aggressive, ever-changing defensive front. The Chargers rushed for just 3.3 yards a carry this season, worst in the league, and simply cannot have that kind of day in this one.
Bet you didn’t know: The Jets ran the ball 607 times this season. That was not only 82 times more than the No. 2 team in carries (Carolina, 525) but 132 times more than any other team that remains in this year’s playoff field (Baltimore and New Orleans, 468).
Key matchup: Jets S Kerry Rhodes vs. Chargers TE Antonio Gates. Rhodes won back his starting job in the Jets’ base defense late in the season. While New York will try plenty of things to handle Gates, Rhodes will have to be up to the task at some point. Gates averaged 14.6 yards per catch this season to go with eight receiving touchdowns, but he averaged 15.5 yards a catch to go with four scores on third-down plays.
The call: Chargers 24-14
Jeff Legwold, The Denver Post
