CHICAGO — Economists expect the recovery to remain “firmly on track” over the next two years, although job growth is likely to remain slow, according to a new survey.
The latest outlook from the National Association for Business Economics, released Monday, sees regular job gains resuming this quarter but no drop in unemployment below 9 percent for another year. Consumer spending will be relatively sluggish as many continue to dig themselves out of debt, but inflation is expected to remain subdued, and home prices should rise at a rate slightly above inflation this year and next.
“We see a healthy expansion underway, although it will take time to reduce economic slack and repair damaged balance sheets,” said Lynn Reaser, the group’s president and chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.
The NABE forecast is largely consistent with its last quarterly forecast in November and reflects an economy in a slow-but-steady recovery mode.
Its prediction that unemployment will decline only to 9.6 percent by the fourth quarter also mirrors the Federal Reserve’s forecast last week that the jobless rate will remain high over the next two years because businesses are apt to stay cautious about taking on workers. The NABE economists foresee an average monthly gain of 103,000 jobs this year.
The survey was conducted before the government released the January unemployment rate this month, showing an unexpected drop in unemployment to 9.7 percent from 10 percent.
