LONDON — The United States and Britain are more likely than Germany and France to witness an embarrassing downgrade of their top debt rating, Moody’s Investors Service said Monday.
In a quarterly report assessing the prospects of the triple A-rated countries, including Spain and the “less fiscally challenged” Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, Moody’s warned that the economic recovery remained fragile in many advanced economies.
“This exposes governments to substantial execution risk in the implementation of their exit strategies, which could yet make their credit more vulnerable,” said Arnaud Mares, senior vice president in Moody’s sovereign risk group and the main author of the report.
Governments and central banks are looking at when and how to unwind their massive stimulus measures, which include historically low interest rates, liquidity provisions, industry incentives and increased spending. Although some experts warn that exiting these policies too early risks creating a new economic downturn, they are also straining government finances.
For now though, Moody’s said the triple-A governments don’t face an immediate threat to their top ratings as the servicing of the debt remains manageable — the top credit rating reduces the interest payments countries have to pay on their debt when going to the bond markets to raise capital.
However, debt affordability is “most stretched” in Britain and the U.S., Moody’s said.
