The summer air-travel season is going full-bore, though lurking below the busy surface are fewer options for passengers when flights are canceled.
In sort of a sophisticated version of musical chairs, there are simply not enough seats to accommodate every passenger when weather or mechanical issues intervene.
“Planes are running so full that they don’t have any spots,” Tulsa, Okla., resident Anne Green said last week as she waited between flights. “It’s like a domino effect where you can’t get another flight when something goes wrong.”
In late June, Green tried to get to Portland, Ore., for a half-marathon, only to run into a marathon trying to change planes in Denver. Her flight was canceled because of weather, forcing Green to spend the night in Denver. “Thank goodness I had a toothbrush in my purse,” Green said.
U.S. airlines cut capacity nearly 9 percent last year, taking planes out of service or using smaller planes on some routes in a scramble to better match the number of seats to customers. That was on top of a 6.7 percent capacity cut in 2008.
Belt-tightening blame has been placed on the economy, rising fuel prices and fewer passengers, according to the Air Transport Association.
As a result, load factors — the measure of how full planes are — are up. Since 2001, when airlines took a big hit from Sept. 11, the load factor for U.S. carriers has risen from 69.23 percent to 81.09 percent in 2009.
Involuntary “bumping” — the result of oversold flights — also was up in the first quarter this year — 23,380 instances reported to the U.S. Department of Transportation compared with 17,099 in the first quarter of 2009.
All that adds up to greater chances that passengers may not be rebooked on a flight later the same day, but quite possibly the next day.
“Capacity is generally down and load factors are generally up,” said United spokesman Rahsaan Johnson. “But there is a great deal of thinking about what goes into how you cancel flights and how to inconvenience the least number of people.”
Don Dillman, vice president of United’s operations control center, said the emphasis on re-accommodating passengers is on getting them where they need to go without letting the system stack up.
“This is like a big, flowing river,” Dillman said, “and you have to keep the river flowing, or it overflows its banks.”
Recent thunderstorms that canceled or delayed morning flights at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport led to a rebooking line the likes of which Robert Polk, president of Polk Majestic Travel Group in Denver, had never seen.
“I would rather have a root canal with no Novocaine than stand in a line like the one at O’Hare,” Polk said.
The one-two punch of fewer seats and fuller planes complicates travel, said Polk, whose company specializes in working with corporations.
“In the past, companies have said, ‘Take the lowest fare.’ But now we’re seeing something a little different. Companies are saying, ‘Take the lowest fare, but if something close to that saves time, take that,'” Polk said.
The situation doesn’t appear that it will change anytime soon.
Capacity changes are expected to be flat this year, with mild conflicts on whether they will go up or down.
A forecast by the Federal Aviation Administration in March stated that system capacity in available seat miles, or ASMs — a measure for how much capacity airlines have — will decline 1.6 percent this year.
UBS, a global financial-services firm, predicted a 1 percent capacity increase this year. Tempered growth could be seen in figures released last week by U.S. airlines.
Denver’s second-largest airline, Frontier, showed a 10 percent capacity increase this June over June 2009 and a load factor of 91 percent compared with 87 percent in June 2009.
Bryan Bedford, president of Frontier’s parent company, said he expects Frontier’s capacity to rise 2.5 percent in the second quarter and 5 percent in the third quarter.
United, the largest carrier at Denver International Airport, reported a 1.1 percent increase in capacity for June over June 2009, and load factor of 87.9 percent, 2 percentage points higher than June 2009.
Southwest, DIA’s third-largest carrier, reported 81.9 percent of its seats were filled in June, up 2.4 points from June 2009, and capacity rose 1.9 percent. Southwest expects capacity to remain relatively flat this year, said spokesman Chris Mainz. “It’s too early to tell about next year.”
Growth in Denver from 133 to 144 daily flights in August allows more options when storm clouds gather, Mainz said, adding, “With high frequency in big markets, we have better opportunities to accommodate passengers on the next flight.”
Behind the scenes of a weather event, the airlines have systems for trying to get ahead of the storm.
Travel waivers can be issued so passengers can rebook at no charge within a specified time, and flights can be selectively canceled to ensure the system continues to flow.
One solution is creative re-routing — putting passengers on a flight that might have an interim stop in another city instead of being a direct, nonstop flight.
Options also may include swapping a smaller aircraft for a larger one to carry more passengers, with cancellations as a last resort.
An airline’s stations and hubs communicate several times a day about conditions, and decisions about how many flights to cancel and where to cancel are a balancing act.
To assist those critical moves, United will implement a software “solver” system late this year to make suggestions.
“It’s not going to turn the airline into HAL,” pledged Dillman, referring to the computer that took over in “2001: A Space Odyssey.” “It will be more, ‘Here’s what the box came up with.’ “
Ann Schrader: 303-954-1967 or aschrader@denverpost.com
When a flight is canceled
Check with specific airline because not all of these possibilities may apply
• Call airline or check airline’s website before going to the airport.
• If already at the airport, use unmanned kiosks to see whether trip has been automatically rebooked, check with gate agent or ticket counter for rebooking, call airline’s reservations department or consult the consumer service desk.
• Airlines are not required to provide hotel, food or transport vouchers in the event of weather cancellations.
