WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — The high-pressure systems that steered Danielle, Earl and Fiona to the north might still be in place if and when the next tropical system threatens the East Coast.
Or not.
Two large high-pressure systems, one just off the East Coast and the other far in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, have been forming an “alley” that has shot storms to the north and away from the coast.
But “they could change in the next few days and the next storm could be steered in a different direction,” National Hurricane Center specialist Dan Brown said.
That is causing concern with Tropical Storm Gaston, which rose up Wednesday, fell apart Thursday and is showing signs of rekindling. It’s in the Atlantic about halfway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles, moving west at 10 mph, and a change in the “alley” could aim it toward the U.S.
“I would not expect every storm that forms in the Atlantic to turn north this year,” Brown said.
While such systems can change in a hurry, they also can stay in place for weeks on end. In 1995, Brown said, they steered most storms north and away from land. In 2005, they sent most barreling into North America.
Brown also offered this warning: Most late-season hurricanes — think Wilma in late October 2005 — form in the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
If the high-pressure systems now in place are still there, he said, they actually would steer the storms toward Florida.
Sept. 10 is the traditional peak of the hurricane season.
