WASHINGTON — The Tea Party movement’s upset victory Tuesday by an insurgent in Delaware’s Republican primary puts GOP chances to win control of the U.S. Senate in serious jeopardy.
Republicans need to gain 10 seats to run the Senate. Most leading prognosticators had said that appeared within reach until Tuesday. Analysts say Republicans still have a good chance to pick up 39 House seats and gain a majority in that chamber.
Delaware’s not the only Senate race in November where Republicans will field a Tea Party candidate vulnerable to the “fringe” label against better- known Democrats in the Nov. 2 general election.
Colorado and Nevada face the same scenario, with incumbent Democrats seeking victories against Tea Party-backed insurgents who defeated better-known Republican candidates.
However, among the Senate seats that most analysts expected Republicans to gain was Delaware’s, where the GOP establishment’s choice was U.S. Rep. Michael Castle. A former two-term governor, Castle has won 12 statewide elections and routinely pulls many Democratic and independent votes.
Running, however, in a closed Republican primary Tuesday in which Democrats and independents couldn’t vote, Castle was upset by little- known Tea Party candidate Christine O’Donnell.
As of Sept. 1, Delaware had 621,746 registered voters. Nearly half are Democrats, and 146,000 are independents.
Despite the intense campaign in the small state, the GOP primary attracted only a 32 percent turnout Tuesday. That means that a passionate but relatively small Tea Party movement was able to win a majority of a light Republican turnout.
Next, however, O’Donnell must face Democrat Chris Coons in the general election. The executive of New Castle County pulled 30,561 votes Tuesday. In Delaware’s 2006 general election, Democratic Sen. Tom Carper won — with 170,567 votes.
Closed primaries, where only registered party members can vote, tend to reflect the “small, intensely held preferences of fringe groups, and compared to the electorate in open races, the small size of the Tea Party makes it a fringe group,” said Michael Munger, a political science professor at Duke University.
O’Donnell’s victory makes Republican control of the Senate a “lost cause unless the depth of anti-Obama anger is bigger than anything we’ve seen,” Munger said, noting President Barack Obama’s low poll ratings.
In Colorado, Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet faces Tea Party-backed Ken Buck. The race is rated a toss-up.
In Nevada, polls show former State Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, the Tea Party insurgent Republican, deadlocked with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
Still, Angle’s Tea Party backing “could make the difference between her winning or losing,” said Brad Coker, the managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. Her Tea Party message could spark a higher turnout among Republicans and conservative-leaning independents, while Reid’s falling popularity among Democrats and independents could leave him vulnerable, Coker said.
Alaska’s Senate race is widely considered especially unpredictable. Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski was upset by Tea Party-backed Joe Miller. But she is considering a write-in bid to create a three-way race, making any forecast difficult.
Nevertheless, the Tea Party movement has a political problem. It has yet to demonstrate that it can extend its reach beyond candidates who often have trouble appealing to a broader constituency. It’s also split the Republican Party.
Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine offered a bloody analogy of the GOP-Tea Party relationship.
“They invited the Tea Party in, and it’s turning into the Donner Party,” Kaine said in a conference call with reporters, referring to American pioneers who were snowbound in the Sierra Nevada in the 1840s and resorted to cannibalism to survive.
After harsh Republican criticism of O’Donnell during the primary campaign, party leaders got behind her Wednesday.
“Let there be no mistake: The National Republican Senatorial Committee — and I personally as the committee’s chairman — strongly stand by all of our Republican nominees, including Christine O’Donnell in Delaware,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.
