Eight months ago in this spot, I made two predictions about the 2010 campaign:
“Given the rising tide of discontentment with Democrats who hold all the power in Colorado and Washington, D.C., this should be a good year for Republicans — if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot.”
And “either Gov. Bill Ritter or Sen. Michael Bennet will lose his job this year. But with 10 months before votes are cast, much can happen and much can change.”
Well, Ritter isn’t running for re-election anymore. Bennet is fighting for his political life. And Republicans have made Swiss cheese out of their cowboy boots given how many times they’ve shot themselves in the foot.
Of the four top contenders running for governor and U.S. Senate that I profiled in January, only Bennet remains. Jane Norton was ousted by Ken Buck, who at that time I had cast off as an afterthought, and Dan Maes eked by Scott McInnis in the GOP primary after the McInnis campaign was rocked by a plagiarism scandal.
And back then, Tom Tancredo was happily enjoying retirement.
So, as the campaign season gets fully engaged — and yes, those wall-to-wall TV ads you’re now seeing means we’re fully engaged — we offer up a new scorecard for the two major races in Colorado and what you can expect to see.
Governor: John Hickenlooper
Biggest asset: His affable personality.
Pothole to avoid: Being nothing but personality. Once the shower goes off, voters will want some meat to go with that cheese.
Overlooked strength: Knack for hiring the right people.
Achilles’ heel: He’s the mayor of Denver. While he’s built partnerships with suburban cities, some Coloradans resent the attention and resources that Denver and the metro area gets. Also, he’s to the left of the average Coloradan.
Expect an attack ad to say: He’s a tax-hiker. It’s true, but he did it the Colorado way, by asking voters — and they said “yes” every time.
Governor: Dan Maes
Biggest asset: He’s not a politician in a year when voters are looking for something else.
Pothole to avoid: It is better to keep one’s mouth shut and be thought a fool than to open it and erase all doubt.
Overlooked strength: He’s been on the campaign trail much longer than the other two candidates combined, cultivating the grassroots.
Achilles’ heel: No money and a penchant for saying strange things, such as Denver’s bike share program is a U.N. plot to steal your freedoms.
Expect an attack ad to say: “Even the Republican leadership says he’s not qualified to be governor,” with quotes from Hank Brown, Dick Wadhams and anyone else who has distanced himself from Maes. Tea Party leader Janet Rowland called him a “fraud.”
Governor: Tom Tancredo
Biggest assets: Name recognition, campaign manager Bay Buchanan and ability to raise money fast.
Pothole to avoid: See Dan Maes.
Overlooked strength: Given his long history in Colorado politics, he actually knows quite a bit about state policies and the budget.
Achilles’ heel: Name recognition. He’s known as a firebrand and one-trick pony. He needs to demagogue the immigration issue to raise dough but needs to convince Coloradans he knows about other issues.
Expect an attack ad to say: He’s too “extreme” for Colorado, and it could be reinforced with his own quotes on bombing Mecca, civics literacy tests, etc.
U.S. Senate: Michael Bennet
Biggest asset: Money and connections.
Pothole to avoid: Relying on those connections too much. Bringing Barack Obama to Colorado would be a mistake.
Overlooked strength: His personality. He’s engaging and, in unguarded moments, enjoys a good debate.
Achilles’ heel: He’s an incumbent who has voted for the Obama agenda yet represents a state where Obama’s popularity has been flagging. He also struggles to speak decisively about some issues. That’s a nice of way of saying he waffles.
Expect an attack ad to say: It’s already been said: He’s voted for spending bills that total $2.5 billion for every day he’s been in office.
Senate: Ken Buck
Biggest asset: Still seen as a folksy outsider, even though he’s Princeton-educated and has been in government for two decades. He’s like Wayne Allard with zing.
Pothole to avoid: Allowing Bennet to define him. Bennet has run ads for weeks calling him an extremist. Buck’s first TV ad didn’t air until Thursday.
Overlooked strength: He’s much more nuanced on hot-button issues than he seems in 30-second ads and sound bites.
Achilles’ heel: His mouth. While he’s been around the political barnyard for years, it’s his first high-profile race, and he’s been known to step in it.
Expect an attack ad to say: More about his reprimand while working in the U.S. Attorney’s office, when he crossed the line by discussing a gun case he considered to be weak with the defense.
Dan Haley can be reached at dhaley@denverpost.com. Follow him on Twitter at @danhaleyDP.
