WASHINGTON — Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is the early front-runner among potential Republican candidates for president in 2012, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.
While former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin commands the national spotlight, turning out Tea Party activists and headlining rallies, for now it’s Romney who claims the lead at 25 percent, months before an official field takes shape. Palin, GOP nominee John McCain’s 2008 running mate, took second with 18 percent.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee tied for third place with 16 percent. Finishing out the pack were Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, with 6 percent; Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, with 4 percent; and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, with 2 percent.
The survey of 815 registered voters, conducted over three days last week, also highlights more concerns for President Barack Obama and for the Democrats, who are fearful of losing their congressional majority in the November elections.
Divided over GOP
On the surface, Americans are divided over whether they want Republicans to take over Congress: Forty-eight percent say yes, and 46 percent say no.
However, among voters who describe themselves as “very enthusiastic,” 62 percent say they want Republicans in charge. Similarly, Republicans have the edge when those who “definitely” plan to vote are asked which party they’ll vote for in their own districts.
For the first time, a majority of registered voters — 54 percent — said Obama had fallen short of their expectations for him as president. The figure was even more pronounced — 59 percent — among voters younger than 30, the very group Obama hoped to energize permanently.
Obama’s approval rating among registered voters was 45 percent, dragged down by those who fear that the worst of the economic crisis is still to come. Among independents, 54 percent disapprove of the job he’s doing as president and 40 percent approve, the first time his approval rating with the group has been negative.
“An enthusiasm gap”
Just 16 percent of young voters were “very” enthusiastic about voting in November, compared with 43 percent of voters 60 and older, a group that’s more likely to vote Republican. Independents are much less enthusiastic than Democrats or Republicans are, meaning partisan turnout could be key.
“It means there’s an enthusiasm gap out there that Democrats have to address, or hold on to your hats in November,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public ap at Marist College in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., which performed the survey.
Palin, Gingrich and Huckabee could be canceling out some of one another’s support, Miringoff said, especially among Southern and conservative voters.
The survey included 369 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
