In Boise, BCS might as well be four letters. The Broncos of Boise State don’t like hearing about it, don’t like talking about it and don’t like thinking about it.
Oh, they ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
Wait until Sunday rolls around. At 6:15 p.m. MDT, ESPN will announce the season’s first Bowl Championship Series standings. Most projections agree it won’t be a mystery. And it won’t be popular.
Boise State, according to projections, will be No. 1.
Since most college football fans compare Boise State’s schedule to anything from a bakery to a grease-slickened road paved in gold, Sunday’s show will fan the growing flames of hostility from college football’s aristocracy.
Relax, Big 12. Put the tiger back in the cage, LSU fans. It’s not going to last.
“They will eventually drop down,” said BCS analyst Jerry Palm of . “No question. They’re No. 1 this week. Even if they are, they’re not staying there long.”
Keep in mind the three-pronged Triton, which rules the BCS and determines the two teams for the BCS championship game. The USA Today coaches poll, the Harris poll of selected college football observers and six computers make up the BCS standings.
According to ‘s Brad Edwards, here are Sunday’s projected top five, barring upsets Saturday (all rankings listed are projected BCS standings): 1, Boise State .913; 2, Oregon .863; 3, Texas Christian .854; 4, Oklahoma .843; 5, Ohio State .842.
Why Boise State? It’s third in the two polls and second in the computers. Second in the computers? Yes, its wins over Virginia Tech on the road and Oregon State at home give the Broncos a nice score, for now.
Unfortunately for Boise State, its next games are against San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, Hawaii and Idaho. The Broncos’ only game left against a currently ranked team is Nov. 26 at Nevada, 17th in ESPN’s projections.
“Boise will finish behind every major undefeated team,” Palm said. “Period.”
Boise State coach Chris Petersen has vowed not to utter “BCS” until December, but the few players who will talk don’t take Sunday’s ranking seriously.
“You can’t say you’re the best five games in,” Boise State tight end Kyle Efaw told reporters this week.
On slightly safer ground is TCU, which, along with Boise State, has built street cred as a BCS buster but never enough computer cred to slip into the BCS title game. The Horned Frogs are fourth in the computers and have two ranked opponents left in No. 22 Air Force on Oct. 23 and at No. 12 Utah on Nov. 6.
The two teams in the best shape are Oregon and Ohio State. The Ducks are only seventh in the computers and, like TCU, have only two ranked opponents left, but games against UCLA, Southern California and Washington will provide more computer clout than TCU’s slate of UNLV, San Diego State and New Mexico.
Ohio State’s No. 10 computer ranking will get bumped up Saturday when it visits No. 21 Wisconsin. The Buckeyes finish the year against No. 19 Iowa and No. 24 Michigan.
“Oregon has nowhere to go but up,” Palm said. “Ohio State has nowhere to go but up.”
Oklahoma can’t go much higher in the computers with a No. 2 ranking but could move higher in the polls, where it’s sixth in both. It visits No. 14 Missouri on Oct. 23 and if it wins the South, will likely play No. 7 Nebraska in the Big 12 championship.
In other words, the BCS standings are as fluid as the Olentangy River.
“You take a look at the top 10 week to week, and the precarious nature of any ranking is obvious,” Ohio State coach Jim Tressel told . “Just review the change in the makeup of the top 10 between the beginning of the season until now.”
The question is: Can an unbeaten Boise State or TCU stay ahead of a once-beaten BCS power? Alabama, the defending national champion, just lost at South Carolina, which is 10th in the projections.
If Alabama wins out and finishes 12-1, Boise State and TCU will be behind the Crimson Tide in the computers. It may come down to the two polls. If it’s between an unbeaten Boise State or TCU or a once-beaten Alabama for the second slot in the national title game, what will the voters do?
The answer may be obvious. Yet the question may never be asked. It’s Week 7, folks. It’s not even Halloween yet. The ghouls and goblins can stay in their closets until December.
Projected BCS rankings
1. Boise State
• Key games: Fresno State on Nov. 19, at Nevada on Nov. 26.
• Comment: Unless a computer glitch puts San Jose State and Louisiana Tech in the top 10, Boise State won’t stay afloat.
2. Oregon
• Key games: at USC on Oct. 30, Arizona on Nov. 26, at Oregon State on Dec. 4.
• Comment: Defense can’t keep giving up 23 points to the likes of Washington State.
3. TCU
• Key games: Air Force on Oct. 23, at Utah on Nov. 6.
• Comment: Mountain West’s Silly Putty bottom half will likely doom Horned Frogs.
4. Oklahoma
• Key games: at Missouri on Oct. 23, at Oklahoma State on Nov. 27, Big 12 championship on Dec. 4.
• Comment: Texas game finally showed Sooners may have right stuff to go distance.
5. Ohio State
• Key games: at Wisconsin on Saturday, at Iowa on Nov. 20, Michigan on Nov. 27.
• Comment: Stronger, deeper Big Ten should help Buckeyes, but they may need Oregon or Oklahoma to lose.
John Henderson, The Denver Post
