WASHINGTON — Much of Afghanistan remains at risk of falling to the Taliban, and Pakistan is unwilling to stop its secret support for militants who mount attacks from its tribal areas, according to two new classified intelligence reports that contradict upbeat assessments by U.S. military officials about the war.
The National Intelligence Estimates on Afghanistan and Pakistan, which represent the collective view of more than a dozen intelligence agencies, were the subject of a recent closed hearing by the Senate Intelligence Committee. On Thursday, the White House is slated to issue its progress report on Afghanistan.
The gloomy analysis of the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan contrasts sharply with recent remarks by U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who said after visiting the region last week that he is convinced the war strategy is working.
“It certainly makes one wonder,” one congressional official said of the disconnect between the intelligence community and the military.
President Barack Obama signed off Tuesday on a draft of the White House review after meeting with his top security advisers, spokesman Robert Gibbs said.
The review will say that “there has been some important progress in halting the momentum of the Taliban in Afghanistan,” Gibbs said, and that “we’ve seen greater cooperation over the course of the past 18 months with the Pakistani government.”
It also will point to problems, including “the ongoing challenge and threat of safe havens in Pakistan,” he said.
Declining to be named discussing classified material, U.S. officials confirmed key findings in the estimates.
It’s unclear to what extent the intelligence estimates examined the impact of the CIA’s increased use of Predator drone strikes against militants in Pakistan’s tribal areas. But in concluding that the Taliban sanctuaries in those areas remain intact, the reports suggest that drone strikes have not been sufficient to stop militants from staging attacks.
Nevertheless, a U.S. official maintained that CIA operations in Pakistan — a euphemism for drone strikes — have greatly degraded military safe havens in Pakistan over the past two years. And military officers countered that the assessments are “dated” because the review period stopped in September, as the last of the additional forces were arriving.
“You are missing at least 2 1/2 months of intensive operations with the full complement of surge forces,” said a senior defense official, who added that intelligence analysts lack the “proximity and perspective that our forces have who are on the ground living this every single day.”
