In case you missed it, Hosni Mubarak’s not-exactly-farewell speech was not exactly the end of the story.
There were at least a couple of ways for the narrative to have gone from there.
For example, Mubarak could have invited opposition leaders over for a nice brunch, discussed what steps could be taken to ensure both an orderly and democratic transition, asked for ideas in putting together an interim government, taken suggestions for an early election date, congratulated the protesters for their bravery.
Or he could have sent a bunch of thugs into Tahrir Square, some of them riding horses and camels, to beat demonstrators with whips and clubs and cause new White House chief of staff Bill Daley to warn Mubarak — and this will take you Daley fans back — that “The whole world is watching.”
If you thought this was going to be easy, then you haven’t been paying attention.
The fast-moving drama has been gripping, to say the least. The world seems to be changing before our eyes. Events were moving so quickly that Barack Obama had no choice but to abandon caution and tell Mubarak — a 30-year American ally — that it was time for him to go.
Mubarak obviously got the word. It’s just the timing that he may not have fully embraced.
A day later, when asked about the timing, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs says that everyone should understand that “now means now.”
And yet on that same day, Mubarak sent in the thugs, meaning that now, in his view, might mean some other time — maybe in time for elections in September, but just maybe. Once the people go home, stop shouting into the TV cameras, stop their tweeting and friending, stop insisting that they be heard, then maybe it could be September.
Once the media take their cameras home, once Anderson Cooper — the thugs actually attacked Anderson Cooper — leaves town, then maybe.
The White House called the violence “outrageous and deplorable,” which it unquestionably is, and suggested that Mubarak’s government was behind the violence, which nearly every reporter on the ground was seconding.
One danger for Obama has been to promise too much to the demonstrators. What can America really do if the crackdown on demonstrators continues? Anyone who has spent any time in the Middle East will tell you that the so-called Arab Street is nearly unanimous in believing that America can do whatever it wants. If America really wanted Mubarak gone today, the thinking goes, Mubarak would be gone today.
Well, he’s not. And Egyptian state television is calling the pro-Mubarak thugs “pro-stability” forces, bringing back the discussion of how “stability” can mean “repression.” And if you’re too much pro-stability, you can end up with people like Mubarak in charge for 30 years.
One reason the story went the way it did Wednesday was that the Army, which had refused to break up the protests, did not step in when Mubarak’s people went after the protesters. That’s one place where the U.S. does have major influence, both in terms of money sent in foreign aid and in the long-standing relationship between the Egyptian and American military.
But you didn’t see any of that in evidence Wednesday. New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof, blogging from Tahrir Square, said the pro-Mubarak stabilizers were “organized thugs sent in to crack heads, chase out journalists, intimidate the pro-democracy forces and perhaps create a pretext for an even harsher crackdown.”
Mubarak is clearly trying to sell stability to the Egyptian people. The protesters are fighting back, and what it looks like is chaos. Mubarak knows the value of chaos. For 30 years, since the murder of Anwar Sadat, Mubarak has used terrorism — which is a real issue in Egypt — to impose national emergency laws. He has used the Muslim Brotherhood — which wants an Islamic Republic — as a foil to democratic reforms.
While there has been order, there have also been rigged elections, corrupt officials, a stagnant (until very recently) economy and Mubarak’s firm grip on the government.
But this attack on the protesters may have been a desperate misstep. Who will believe that pro-Mubarak forces spontaneously set upon the protesters in order to bring stability back to Egypt?
What the crackdown vividly shows is the real price of stability. And, yes, the whole world is watching.
E-mail Mike Littwin at mlittwin@.
