RTD directors were warned in the strongest terms yet Tuesday night that this is not the year to ask metro Denver voters to approve a sales-tax increase for the financially stressed FasTracks program.
“Based on recent research, we do not believe 2011 is the year to ask for any sort of tax increase,” said John Huggins, executive director of the pro-FasTracks group Coalition for Smart Transit.
Huggins and RTD political consultant Maria Garcia Berry listed numerous reasons why voters this year would probably reject a tax measure aimed at closing the FasTracks funding gap.
Berry said recent polling focused on what typically is an older and more conservative electorate in off-year elections and survey results showed “trying to pursue an election in 2011 is a very risky proposition.”
Huggins said it is unlikely FasTracks proponents could raise the millions of dollars needed to win a campaign for a tax increase.
Regional Transportation District directors plan to decide Tuesday whether to propose a FasTracks tax hike this year, and if their answer is yes, how much of an additional tax to ask for.
FasTracks, which includes six new train lines in metro Denver and extensions to three existing RTD light-rail lines, is short at least $2 billion of what is needed to finish the project by the end of this decade.
In 2004, metro-area voters approved the original FasTracks sales tax of 0.4 percent, or 4 cents on a $10 purchase. Since then, forecasts of lower-than-expected sales-tax collections and construction costs that were higher than planned have combined to create the program’s funding shortfall.
That gap means that some projects within FasTracks, including the East Corridor train to Denver International Airport, are funded, and others, including the North Metro train to Thornton/Northglenn, and the Northwest train to Boulder/Longmont, are largely unfunded.
Last month, the Metro Mayors Caucus said RTD’s directors should propose a measure for this November’s ballot that would double the existing 0.4 percent FasTracks tax as a way to complete the project by 2019.
The mayors’ group acted after hearing results from a Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce-sponsored poll showing 58 percent of voters surveyed would back such a tax increase to get the project done.
Huggins said that survey was taken in December and that since then, “the fiscal climate has changed significantly,” with voters’ minds even more focused on “jobs, the economy and taxes.”
Especially in recent weeks, “the public is much more aware of the federal government’s and the states’ financial distress,” he said.
RTD’s financial analysis shows FasTracks could be completed by 2020 if voters approved a tax increase of 0.4 percentage points in 2012.
If directors chose next week to reject a tax vote this year, they probably will postpone consideration of a 2012 vote until early next year.
RTD director Bill McMullen acknowledged that he’s been a “cheerleader” for a tax vote this year for the full increase of 0.4 percentage points. Possibly postponing the vote for a year may be acceptable, he added.
