The winter of 2011-12 will probably be colder than normal for much of the northern United States, although a repeat of the worst of last year’s East Coast snowstorms is unlikely, forecasters said.
A cooling in the Pacific Ocean known as La Niña is predicted to return this year, joined by another season of frigid Arctic blasts caused by pressure differentials over the North Pole and northern Atlantic Ocean.
“We’re looking at a cold start to the winter with maybe a mild finish,” said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Md.
Forecasters are predicting the coldest weather from the Great Plains to the Great Lakes, along with heavy snows across the northern tier. Cold weather is likely to increase demand for heating and power-plant fuels.
The coming winter might be colder than both the 10- and 30- year averages, increasing heating demand, said Travis Hartman, a meteorologist at MDA EarthSat Weather in Gaithersburg, Md.
New York City might be hit by several snowstorms, Hartman said. But he doesn’t expect a repeat of the past two years, when snow records fell in Central Park and some city streets were unplowed for days.
“As far as calling for another blockbuster year, we’re not there,” Hartman said.
The upper Great Plains, Great Lakes and Midwest may see another year of heavy snow, he said. When the snowpack from the winter of 2010-11 melted, it caused record flooding along the Ohio, Mississippi and Missouri rivers as far south as Louisiana.
Hartman said that depending on how fast and when the snow melts, more flooding might be in store in the first half of 2012.
The coldest area might be the northern Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes region, said Paul Pastelok, a meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pa. The Northeast probably won’t be as cold or snowy as last year, he said.
