Don’t expect another year in which men’s basketball teams outside the six “power conferences” make up half the Final Four, as Butler and Virginia Commonwealth accomplished last year. That may never happen again.
However, with only a month left before Selection Sunday, indications point toward another March Madness that doesn’t ignore the little guy.
The power leagues of the Atlantic Coast Conference, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and Southeastern Conference figure to always dominate the NCAA Tournament field, which last year was expanded to 68 teams, including 37 at-large bids.
But in last week’s official NCAA RPI computer power rankings, teams outside the six power leagues claimed 10 of the top 27 slots and 19 of the top 50.
The RPI is just one of several “tools” used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. But each year when the tournament field is analyzed and dissected, RPI appears to be among the most important data used in picking the at-large teams.
The RPI — and, more important, recent Final Four appearances by Butler (2010 and 2011), VCU (2011) and George Mason (2006) — show it’s not only about the so-called power leagues.
Former George Mason coach Jim Larranaga, now at Miami, told The New York Times last spring: “I think years ago, everyone thought there was a big difference between the best teams in the high-major leagues and the mid- major leagues. That is no longer true.”
Teams outside the power conferences received seven at-large bids last year: Mountain West (two), Atlantic 10 (two), Colonial Athletic Conference (two) and Conference USA. That is compared to eight in 2010 but just four in 2009.
This year? We will know in a month. But the Mountain West, A-10, Missouri Valley and West Coast Conference are stronger. Meanwhile, the Pac-12 (four teams in the 2011 bracket) is down. The Big East (11) and Big Ten (seven) also may not take as many slots as they did last spring.
Keep in mind that six of the 10 members of the selection committee represent schools or conferences outside the power conferences: Xavier athletic director Mike Bobinski, Texas-San Antonio athletic director Lynn Hickey, Big Sky Conference commissioner Doug Fullerton, Utah State athletic director Scott Barnes, West Coast Conference commissioner Jamie Zaninovich and SMU athletic director Steve Orsini.
Interesting.
Missouri smurfs
Can fourth-ranked Missouri reach the Final Four with a four-guard lineup?
The Tigers certainly haven’t backed down from anyone. First-year coach Frank Haith deserves consideration for national coach of the year for a remarkable run through the Big 12, one of the toughest and deepest leagues.
When 6-foot-8 senior forward Laurence Bowers was lost in October to a season-ending torn ACL and another “big” transferred, Haith was forced to go “small ball” with 6-8 Ricardo Ratliffe surrounded by 5-10 Phil Pressey, 6-3 Marcus Denmon, 6-6 Kim English and 6-2 Matt Pressey, Phil’s brother. English is a lock-down defender and Denmon (averaging 18 points) a Big 12 player of the year candidate.
Sports Illustrated determined that the average height of Missouri’s starters ranked 303rd among the nation’s 344 Division I teams. The fast-breaking Tigers avoid matchup problems by spreading the floor and beating opponents down the floor before they can set up their defense.
“You don’t just have four guards out there,” Baylor coach Scott Drew said of Missouri. “You have four guards that are all-conference level.”
March Madness without Jim Calhoun?
That appears to be a possibility. Calhoun, 69, who led Connecticut to the national championship last spring, is taking an indefinite leave of absence. He has been diagnosed with spinal stenosis and said the pain shooting down a leg became intolerable.
“I’m doing my best to fight this thing,” he said.
Even in the event that Calhoun can’t make it back this spring, the Naismith Basketball Hall of Famer said he is not ready to make a decision about possible retirement.
” I don’t think it changes my mind, one way or another, about next year or the next two years,” he told USA Today. “I just want to get the pain gone. Getting onto planes and coaching — I can’t do that right now.”
UConn will miss Calhoun’s coaching and the media will miss his Irish wit. Calhoun joked about once facing North Carolina in an NCAA Tournament game in nearby Greensboro, N.C.
“When they handed out the halftime stats, they only had Carolina’s on there,” he said.
Power of the 3-pointer
The difference last week in No. 10 Duke’s 85-84 victory at fifth-ranked North Carolina was a 3-pointer from the right wing at the buzzer by Blue Devils freshman guard Austin Rivers.
But it was more than that. For the game, Duke made 15 three-balls. North Carolina attempted just six and hit one.
Duke trailed by 10 points with under three minutes remaining. It will be interesting to see how North Carolina reacts.
“If swallowing and wallowing and (having) sorrow for yourself and feelin’ sorry for yourself, you ought to just go home,” North Carolina coach Roy Williams said afterward. “If we don’t learn something from that and come back and be more determined, I’ve got the wrong group.”
Chairman of defense
Ohio State sophomore Aaron Craft might be confused with a student manager on road trips, but the 6-2 point guard has become arguably as important to the third-ranked Buckeyes as All-America forward Jared Sullinger.
Craft, a former high school quarterback, is considered by some analysts to be the nation’s best on-ball defender. He’s strong, tenacious and tough. And as an ex-football player, he never avoids contact.
Craft’s athleticism is often overlooked and underappreciated. The real key to his craftiness on defense is exceptionally quick footwork that allows him to slide laterally and stay in front of the fleet opponents.
“He physically beat up our guards and manhandled our guards,” Florida coach Billy Donovan said after an early-season loss to the Buckeyes. “I’m not saying he was fouling; everything he did was in the confines of the game. I don’t think he gets the respect he deserves around the country.”
And oh, yes, Craft is a pre-med student who has received only one grade worse than an A in his life — a B-plus at Ohio State last fall in chemistry.
“I was extremely bummed,” he said.
Is Butler doing it?
Butler appeared to be in trouble a year ago at this time, sitting in third place in the Horizon League with only a month left before Selection Sunday. Obviously, the Bulldogs went on a tear — all the way to the national championship game.
This year’s hole may be too deep. Butler entered last weekend at 13-12 and was projected as the sixth seed in the Horizon League’s tournament.
The Bulldogs, who returned guard Ronald Nored and center Andrew Smith as starters off last year’s national finalists, simply can’t shoot. As a team, Butler stood 307th in field-goal percentage last week.
“I’m not going to get down on this team. I’m not going to get down on where we are,” Butler coach Brad Stevens told USA Today. “I didn’t sign up just for the good times.”
A big reason for Kentucky’s success
No. 1-ranked Kentucky has all the weapons, but what really set the Wildcats apart are the size and talent of their frontcourt.
It’s said that college basketball has become a guards’ game. But the Wildcats’ frontcourt of 6-10, 220-pound Anthony Davis, 6-9, 252-pound Terrence Jones and 6-7, 232-pound Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is giving opponents fits. Senior Darius Miller (6-8, 235) comes off the bench but likely would start for most any other team.
And to think some rank North Carolina’s frontcourt of 7-footer Tyler Zeller, 6-11 John Henson and 6-8 Harrison Barnes ahead of Kentucky’s.
The late coach and analyst Al McGuire, who often talked about good teams relying on an “aircraft carrier” (center) to carry them, would be proud.
Pac-12 far from impressive
Here we go again.
The beleaguered Pac-12 Conference received a modest four bids (as the Pac-10) to the 2011 NCAA Tournament and ought to turn cartwheels if the league is able to get three this time. It received only two bids in 2010.
The building process has been slowed by a rash of coaching changes and transfers. And those around the league still talk about trying to re- cover from the loss of a combined 13 first-round picks in the 2008 and 2009 NBA drafts.
But that’s beginning to feel like ancient history.
