Boise State’s Jay Ajayi scoring in the Broncos’ 37-24 win over CSU on Sept. 6. (Associated Press photo)
No non-power conference has been represented yet in the College Football Playoff rankings.
The new top 25 is due out tonight.
I’m going to take a shot at predicting, and no, it won’t be a repeat of my weekly guess of SEC teams in spots 1 through 14 and then Oregon 15th.
I think the committee will begin positioning itself to not have to dip below its top 25 to select a non-power conference champion for an access bowl berth.
I’m leaving Marshall out of the equation for now. I fully admit the Thundering Herd could figure into this, too.
I’m going to guess the CFP tonight has Boise State — with two losses, but one to the SEC’s Mississippi — at 23 and once-beaten CSU at 25. It’s failsafe. That way, if Boise State beats Utah State Saturday night and advances to the Mountain West championship game at home, most likely against Fresno State, and wins again, the Broncos can stay there and be the CFP choice. (Also depending on Marshall.) If the Broncos lose to Utah State, they’d drop out the next week. If CSU has beaten Air Force, it could remain in there, positioned to be the highest-ranked MW team if — given that shot in the championship game because of a Boise State loss — the Rams take the league title.
I can’t help but think that the CFP would want to avoid having CSU ranked higher than Boise State and win, but not make the conference title game, and thus have its access choice not be the highest-ranked Group of 5 team. Frankly, Boise State dominated the Rams on Sept. 6, so while I could make the argument CSU is the better team now, it’s not ridiculous to rank the Broncos higher.
Of course, all of that might make too much sense.
If Utah State beats Boise State and the Rams fall to Air Force, all bets are off.
Terry Frei: tfrei@denverpost.com or twitter.com/TFrei
