U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet (Denver Post file photo)
The latest numbers offered an intriguing glimpse at Colorado’s U.S. Senate race a year before the action starts.
If the election were held today, Colorado voters don’t believe U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet deserves a second term, with 32 percent supporting him and 40 percent opposed. Another 28 percent are undecided about the Denver Democrat, .
His approval rating is better — and may be a better indication of the fight ahead for Republicans seeking to challenge him. His approval is 41 percent to 34 percent disapproving and 25 percent undecided. The poll’s margin of error is 2.8 percentage points.
The poll’s methodology is raising questions — Quinnipiac doesn’t work from a voter list, it may under-represent Latinos and women, and can oversample Republicans, all complaints Democrats are lodging — as is the polling firm’s mixed record in Colorado, given the misses in the 2012 presidential election and the 2014 governor’s race.
But right now, the Quinnipiac surveys are the only public polls we are seeing. (The Democratic Public Policy Polling is another frequent pollster, but the North Carolina-based firm hasn’t released a survey since November 2014, Bennetap approval at 30 percent with 35 percent disapproving.)
The latest numbers are generating the expected split reaction.
Democrats are dismissive. “This far out, polls are going to go up and down, but the fact is their decision makers in Washington still have no candidate to take on Sen. Bennet and he will win in 2016 because Coloradans believe in his fights to reform Washington, hold special interests accountable and create more opportunities for middle-class families,” said Andrew Zucker, a Democratic Party spokesman, in a statement.
Republicans are gleeful. Colorado Peak Politics ran : “KILLER POLL: Democrat Support for Bennet and Murderer Holmes Creepy Close.” It also noted the “weak majority of Democrats” backing Bennetap re-election at 56 percent. (However, it didn’t note the Q poll’s margin of error on each party was much higher at 5.4 percentage points.)
A deeper dive into the numbers may better illuminate Bennetap situation.
The bad: Compared to February, the number of people who think he doesn’t deserve re-election ticked up a bit from 34 percent to 40 percent, as the “don’t know” category decreased. His approval rating in the Quinnipiac survey also fell 5 percentage points from .
The good: Both are minor shifts. And April was his high-water mark for support. July’s numbers are an improvement from this low mark a year earlier when his approval was split 36-36, the polling firm found.
Two other to keep in mind:
— President Barack Obama’s approval rating is 41 percent to 56 percent disapprove, much closer to his high point in Colorado than his lowest point.
–A slim majority of Colorado voters support a theme that Bennet is likely to voice. When asked, “Do you think the federal government should or should not pursue policies that try to reduce the gap between wealthy and less well-off Americans?,” Colorado voters support this notion 51 percent to 43 percent, the latest Quinnipiac survey finds.
